Thursday, September 4, 2008

"Those Are Big 'Ifs'"

LATimes Reporter/Blogger Peter Viles notes,

'This graph, courtesy of Credit Suisse, shows the historical ratio of median existing single-family home prices to median family income in the United States. It suggests that, if the previous historical ratio of prices to income is meaningful, and lasting, home prices will continue to decline until late 2009 or early 2010. Those are big "ifs."'

He continues what he usually refers to as his 'analysis/bloviation' here.


Montpellier said...

I think it's important to note that Viles is writing largely about the SoCal area - a place where nominal price declines of 40% have already occurred. Volume is also up in SoCal, but it's estimated that nearly half of all transactions are foreclosure sales.

Our MSA is lagging (time/phase shifted) SoCal, and we should expect the same time shift/lag in arriving at our "bottom".

The Credit Contraction continues.

brooklyn bob said...

Viles writes about So Cal which is in disarray, but the credit suisse report is about the nation...the disparity is everywhere