Tuesday, November 18, 2008

2400 Pine Garth Run. "New Listing," New MLS #, New Price, New Agent. Again.

Back in August we had a post about 2400 Pine Garth Run. It was part of the "Accidental Landlord" series: owners who could't sell their houses were listing them as rentals.

2400 Pine Garth Run was available for $799,900 to "own," or $3,000 a month to rent. It was a FSBO (For Sale By Owner). You can read the post linked above, but of course the Craigslist rental and "for sale" ads have long expired.

But 2400 Pine Garth Road is back, this time with a new MLS, #459434, an actual REALTOR, and the "new" price of $695,000 for a 5 bed/3 bath, 4500 sq feet 90's reno of a 60's structure on a couple acres, with a possible link to William Faulkner.

The County records show that this place last changed hands in the year 2000 for $360,000.

That's nearly a 100% "appreciation" viz. current asking price in eight years. Only "possible" in a bubble.

Last time we posted about this place, an email correspondent sent info about the various times, price points, MLS #s, and agents this place has had over the past several years. It's been on the market repeatedly.

IOHO: we're in an unprecedented global financial/credit crisis. Nothing like this has ever hit local, regional, national RE. Maybe the calculation needed for selling is that of how things "used to be" --a "realistic" annual appreciation of 3%. Following this logic, do the math. You'll see what an Asking for 2400 Pine Garth Run would be if there wasn't a bubble.

That's a big "if."


Anonymous said...

an appreciation of 3% is actually quite generous. in the past when houses weren't looked upon as investments like stock shares, appreciation was about 1.5% annually.

this is a nice area. but i've seen the house on the market over and over. is it just pricing that's the issue?

Montpellier said...

Anonymous - is that 1.5% real (or nominal) appreciation? Housing has traditionally been a very good inflation hedge - that is, all other things being equal (local economic activity), property values stay in line with inflation. I've heard the 3% number too, but I believe that was nominal, not inflation adjusted, and that most real estate has been static or declined (as the housing stock ages).

I don't know the house to comment on the pricing.

brooklyn bob said...

I'm going to go out on a limb here and suggest that anybody who's had the dough to buy in Western Albemarle also, most likely, just lost a wad in the recent crash. Like 40% of their stock value and/or retirement fund.

So who's the customer for this place?

And who, I'm wondering, are the customers for the new listings of land on mycaar? Incredibly beautiful acreage priced at about $4M by an owner/agent.

Who's buying? Not developers. Not foreign nationals, now that we've dragged everybody else's economy down with ours. And not Joe Local Millionaire.

Ut-oh, as Brian Setser says ("Follow the Money").

craigger said...

1.5% number is real appreciation. I think a lot of houses in Cville are overpriced. But in 2000, cville was one of the cheapest markets in the country. I think that was unwarranted given the flood of retirees that are flocking here from DC.

1.5% real appreciation would be about 5% nominal appreciation per annum since 2000, or a 48% cumulative increase. Which for this house would be an increase from 360k to 531k. I would be a buyer for 3k+ sqft with 2 acres off garth in that school district for 531k.

go dog go said...

craigger has done some good math, imho. BUT 360K was probably overvalued in 2000, even in location/school district, and given acreage, even if cville was undervalued then....

so if i were buying, i'd knock off a little more, given original overvaluation AND the fact that even if I paid 531K today, i couldn't be sure to unload it for same tomorrow, or in spring when the recession worsens.

plus you have to consider the rel. big carbon footprint.

then again there's the William Faulkner angle which might add value for some buyers ;0)

Anonymous said...

further away but much more land and a substantial house for less cash

MLS# 459469

new listing

Anonymous said...

VFord- This was my old home and it was wonderful. The asking price is very high as any owner would have the same complaints that we did. Too close to a busy road that USED to allow for passing before they put the double line. The fence cured a part of that, but it's too close to a busy road for $695K. The Faulkner bit is made up I believe. It was never a hunting cabin when we bought it. Just a nasty little house with T11 siding. My father, Jeff Easter, did a HUGE number on this house and it was a nice place to grow up. One day it will sell...when priced right!

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Appreciate the insight on the property!

The price hasn't come down in the past four months, though many properties have had price adjustments in the past 10 days...With more properties coming on the market every day, DOM growing, and considering that Charlottesville is a designated declining market, one would expect an adjustment. HELOC?

So you're right, it still is too high, and coming from someone in the biz, perhaps seller might take note! If you read earlier comments, there's one from "Craigger," a market watcher/buyer who always has sound reasoning for his math/pricing...his pricing is $531K. Wonder if that has changed as the economy deteriorated....

A big issue with any house priced between $500 & $1M in this area is that they're aimed at "average" buyers, not buyers who have millions. "Average" buyers nowadays have to come up with 20% down payments to get a Jumbo loan...since Americans aren't savers and since many just lost lots of $ in the stock market, this kind of "average" buyer is harder to find....

It will be interesting to see what the Spring brings for this property....