Friday, November 14, 2008

National Existing Home Sales Drop 19% From September to October 2008

Housingwire reports:

"Stress in the real estate market caused U.S. home sales to fall sharply between September and October, according to a national survey of more than 2,500 real estate agents conducted by survey firm Campbell Communications Inc. in early November."

Nationwide, sales were down 19% from September to October.
In areas with higher foreclosures, sales were down even more: Florida 22%; California 32%; Michigan 51%.

According to the survey, agents report certain beliefs or behaviors on the parts of buyers and sellers:


*Agents say large numbers of potential home sellers remain in denial about the true value of their homes.

*Survey results show that a substantial portion of properties are being taken off the market without sales.


*Agents say that many homebuyers have adopted a ‘wait and see’ attitude.

*A majority of real estate agents responding to the survey specified “fear of falling prices” as a major impediment to people buying listed homes.

Read the Housingwire story here.

Locally, the most recent numbers for the past few months, including November (through the 13th) are below. These numbers combine the City and the surrounding counties, plus the Valley, and are from CAAR. Notice that September and October sales are equivalent (September may be higher, since we're missing final data.) But these two months reflect roughly a 60% drop in sales from August. Of course, we're now in the "slow" season, since May-August is the heaviest time of year.

These numbers don't reflect the recent national drop; but they show a deep slowdown from 2004 (click on the links below for more detailed numbers). And, more significantly, while sales are staying at roughly the same pace as the last couple of years, the unsold inventory keeps growing, so at this point it is roughly 15 months.

November (to the 13th)
Active Listing Inventory: 3,442
Number of Listings Sold: 30
Median price of Listings Sold: $251,000
Average Days on Market for Listings Sold: 90

Active Listing Inventory: 3,530
Number of Listings Sold: 146
Median price of Listings Sold: $253,000
Average Days on Market for Listings Sold: 128

September (to 28th)
Active Listing Inventory: 3,623
Number of Listings Sold: 146
Median price of Listings Sold: $242,500
Average Days on Market for Listings Sold: 117

Active Listing Inventory: 3,638
Number of Listings Sold: 242
Median price of Listings Sold: $276,750
Average Days on Market for Listings Sold: 105

Note: August & September 2008 sales are only a little lower than 2007; but this is about 40% lower than activity in 2004.

REALCentralVA has the specifics for the City of Charlottesville and the County of Albemarle. About 33% of residential real estate in this area is vacant. For Charlottesville/Albemarle numbers for August 2008, click here; for September 2008, click here;


Anonymous said...

I nominate these as Worst Listing Photos Ever:

Are the realtors in this area even trying anymore? Who would be interested in paying $799k for this mess of a house?

Mark said...

MyCAAR links don't work, you have to go there and search the specific MLS.

The photos aren't horrible, but they were obviously taken with the realtor's digital camera, and he/she didn't even bother to turn the lights on. What's more, MyCAAR allows at least 15 photos (I have seen more but I'm not sure if that's normal): there are only seven here. Are there any reasons for this other than laziness or ignorance?

My last seller's told me his job was to get people to come to the house, and to do that he needed good photos and maximum Web exposure. This agent doesn't get it- these few amateurish photos don't make me want to get in my car and drive out to Free Union.
Call me crazy, but if I was prepared to hand my seller's agent 3% of $799k (over $24,000) I'd expect more.

And when was the last time you saw the words "AS-IS" in a listing of this price?

I nominate for worst real estate agent decision MLS # 459033. The house next door hasn't sold since June, so what do these sellers do? They choose that place's listing agent to sell their place. Amazing.

BTW, Jim Duncan's new real estate search tool is pretty sweet:

Jim Duncan said...

Thanks, Mark.

anon - google "worst mls photos" - you'll be amazed at what you find.

The MLS currently allows for 50 photos (I was one of the two who made this request at the Board) /patting myself on the back.

My new search tool does allow for good links to properties - which is mighty nice.

Anonymous said...

Well, this listing has good photos, but a delusional seller's agent, as quoted by The Hook.

Because nearby properties have sold for a similar amount, this one is listed for similar.

Not just a "protected market," but one with its head up its...pardon the French.

The bubble people covered this one about six weeks ago.

MLS #457856

Sebastian said...

MLS #459348

Look at the pictures before you look at the price.
I see a house that's a couple hundred grand less than the asking.
Even with the street name.
This is not a "remodel" this year. 10 years ago, perhaps.
This seller is being fed the wrong info, and isn't able to educate self either.