Realtor blogger Jim Duncan knows the bubble is over, and crunches the numbers in a way no other blogger or agent seems to be willing or able to.
And there's perspective over there: From the RealCentralVA Twitter feed this morning: "Talked to a buyer yesterday who said all the Charlottesville Realtors he called still said our market is insulated/steady/different."
We hear the same thing from commentors and prospective buyers.
But most of us know this is no longer true. Even those in the housing industry.
We recently learned that a number of Realtors and lenders are themselves having troubles from declining values: they are facing bankruptcy or foreclosure, as described by CAAR President Judy Savage in C-ville Weekly.
As one of our commenters put it, "Public admission of Game Over."
This blog frequently looks at properties with Asking Prices that are 100, 200, even 300% higher than the previous selling price, with the sale typically within the past 1-10 years.
With 18+ months of inventory, one might expect the trend of climbing Asking Prices to change. But no. Some sellers and sellers' agents still do believe this market is "insulated, steady, protected." The asking prices, therefore, reflect this optimistic belief.
The sellers/sellers' agents also must believe the market will come back. Sadly, it's not coming back in our lifetime.
Cases in point: the following properties came on the market last week, and the percentage increase is even more noticeable, ioho, because these are offered by the same seller. This material comes from public records.
605 Orange Street - $395K
Sale history: 12/2005 - $190K = 107% percent increase in three years
Locust Grove neighborhood near 250 Bypass
3 bed, 1 bath, 1065 sq. ft., ca. 1920.
Price/sq. ft.: $375
1105 Little High Street - $499K
Sale history: 7/2000 - $148.5K = 237% increase in 8 years
East of Downtown
3 bed, 1 bath, 1800 sq. ft., ca 1925
Listing: "Interior needs renovation."
1721 Jefferson Park Ave - $549K
Sale history: 9/2005 - $240k = 129% increase in three years
4 beds, 2 baths. 1,382 sqft, ca. 1959.
Listing: "Currently under renovation."
1101 Little High Street - $595K
Sale history: 8/2000 - $226.5K = 163% increase in 8 years
East of Downtown
Multi-unit. 2,905 sq. ft., ca. 1925.
Price/sq. ft: $205
110 Kent Terrace - $599K
Sale history: 3/2007 - $212K = 182% increase in under two years
Off JPA, in UVa student housing area.
4 beds, 2 bath. 1,673 sqft, ca. 1950.
Price/sq. ft: $358
And these properties in the Belmont Bubble, offered by the same seller, came on the market in October:
219 Douglas Avenue - $495K
Duplex: 4 Bedrooms, 2 Baths. 2227 sq. ft., ca. 1900
Price/sq. ft. - $222
128 Goodman Street - $575K
MLS # 457701
Duplex with Cottage
Sq Ft: 2254, ca. 1920.
$255 per sq. ft.