Wednesday, March 4, 2009

January Pending Home Sales: National, Regional, Charlottesville/Albemarle

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released their index of January Pending Home Sales on Tuesday, March 3.

This monthly index is a "forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January," according to their press release. The index is at its lowest level since tracking began in 2001.

Calculated Risk points out that the Pending Home Sales index leads existing home sales by about 45+ days, so that the reports of actual sales may decrease from February to March if a deal falls apart due to financing or inspection issues, etc.

Nationally, the index is down 7.7%. In the South, pending sales are down 12%. In this area, YOY, the drop is greater. Yes, even recognizing that January is the slow month of the year.

January 2009 Pending Sales in Charlottesville:
Condos/Townhouses: 2
Single-family houses: 6

January 2009 Pending Sales in Albemarle County:
Condos/Townhouses: 3
Single-family houses: 8

NAR doesn't release numbers for Contingent contracts, which occur when a buyer has to sell a property or secure financing or meet some other condition for the sale to go through.

January Contingent contracts for
condos, townhouses, and single-family houses in Cville/Albemarle combined = 45.

The NYT sums up:
"The stumbling housing market took a steep dive after last fall’s sharp stock market declines. Though sales bounced in December, they fell more than 5 percent in January, diminishing hopes that the worst of the housing recession was over. And Tuesday’s report appeared to confirm that."

The "worst of the housing recession" is nowhere near over in this area. Buyers believe prices have a long way to go down before this market is "corrected."

Calculated Risk's post.
NYT article.
Our recent post about January Sales and February Inventory.

BTW, we anticipate someone from Nest will add details or clarify pending or contingent sales numbers in Comments.

Buyers look forward to Jim's February Sales Analysis, due today on RealCentralVA. And to his appearance with Coy Barefoot at 4pm on WINA, AM 1070.
Join in! The show takes live callers.


Jim Duncan said...

A clarification:

Using the MLS:

the number of homes with "contract dates" in January -

Albemarle - 51
Charlottesville - 19

How are you defining "pending" sales?

Working on my update for today ...

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

TYVM, Jim.

Non-contingent. Difficult these days.

At any rate, we're about 7 off your number....

and me, wag said...

bb or jim, on the caar website where they post the live numbers, what does it mean for "sold?" is that contracts or sales that closed for the particular month?

Kevin Curtis said...

I know here in Minnesota we have seen 10 consecutive months of increased pending sales and inventory has dropped significantly. Albeit, since the moratorium has been lifted I fully expect inventories to surge again and foreclosures will continue to put downward pressure on prices.