Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Location, Location, Location. And Foreclosure.

Foreclosures can happen in any neighborhood, at any price point. Both sellers and buyers need to know about foreclosures (public notices found here), as they impact price.

The following properties are within "spitting distance" of each other in a neighborhood that is close to UVA grounds. Some were mentioned in Comments after the CMA/recent posts.

A. 1810 Winston Road - Scheduled for auction afternoon of 4/29 Charlottesville Courthouse steps. Owing: $333.7K. Owner paid $460K in 2004. Auctions are subject to change w/out notice.

B. 809 Winston Terrace - MLS 461693 - $795K. Owner Paid $515K in 2006.

C. 1833 Fendall Ave. - MLS 464447 - $697K (from $742K week ago). Owner paid $227K in '97.

D. 1841 Fendall Ave. - MLS 464906 - $525K. Owner paid $900K in 12/2008.

Go to maps. google.com to input addresses.

All are similar in size and lot, but some have more upgrades than others. Besides the potential foreclosure, one seller, who bought less than six months ago, is changing the comps.

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

I'm not sure what you mean by saying that "one seller, who bought less than six months ago, is changing the comps"? Is there a sale in this area within the last six months? Thanks for the clarification.

anon2 said...

It's in the post. 1841 Fendall for sale for $525,000 was purchased in December 2008 less than six months ago for $900,000

Are you local? You should drive by these houses.

Anonymous said...

Right -- I was discounting that sale, and I would expect appraisers to do the same. But to claim that this single sale is changing comps, wouldn't we have to know more about other sales in this area? Are there any?

buyer looking said...

An appraiser might discount this sale. Might also discount the foreclosure. My realtor would also suggest I ignore both of them. However as a buyer I certainly am not going to discount either of these pricing events. Too many properties available. Too many properties available in this price range.

buyer looking said...

by "discount" i mean "ignore"

Anonymous said...

As a fellow buyer, I don't think the price on 1844 Fendall or the foreclosure tells you very much. There's obviously a backstory to the Fendall home; the foreclosure is a small home (duplex?), not really comparable to the others -- and was it even on the market prior to foreclosure?

That leaves 809 Winston Terrace and 1833 Fendall. If I'm not mistaken (and correct me if I'm wrong!), both are priced well over assessment (20%+), so it's not surprising they aren't moving. But there are other homes in this area that have sold closer to assessment. Those are probably better marks.

buyer looking said...

Assessments are based on what homes sold for in 2007.

The prices paid in 2007 in this area were still based on easy credit. Low downs. The lunatic idea Housing Always Goes Up. The now completely. disproved. idea that this area is a Protected Market.

That the houses are now priced beyond assessment means that IMO the sellers don't have clue one about pricing. (etc)

I too am sure there's a backstory. One part is 'who in their right mind would have paid $900K in Dec 08 for ANYTHING in Cville?'

Don't think its legal and/or ethical for an appriaser to overlook the property. They have a new code apparently.

Anonymous said...

I agree that assessments are too high -- they even went up in parts of the City last year. But I still don't think these four listings are telling us much about the value of homes in the area. Two of them are rather special cases; two of them are priced way too high. The question is: how are homes priced closer to assessment -- or perhaps closer to 06-07 assessments -- selling in this part of the city? Are there any comps this year? (Pavel -- where are you when we need you?)

As for Fendall, the fact that someone (looks like an investor) paid $900k in December 2008 suggests that something else is going on here. I wouldn't judge anything by this.

To put out a provocative claim, I'm not sure these four listings prove that this area of Cville isn't protected. Protected against what exactly? If the claim is that these homes would never drop in value, then that is surely wrong. But if the claim is that homes in this area wouldn't see 40% declines in value, then I'm not convinced. (I don't take 1841 Fendall to be a counter-example, given what seem to be unusual circumstances with that sale.) If there are other examples, of course that would matter a lot. Are there for this narrow part of the market?

Anonymous said...

Go to realestate.charlottesville.org
At address, type in Fendall
You'll get results for whole street
Look under Transfer

The last big sale on that street was in 04 $500,00

The only thing that has changed since then is passing of time

Value has dropped in ensuing years, not accrued

These are just 3/4 bedroom houses in a neighborhood thats been hyped b/c its biking/walking to UVA

These are solidly middle class homes that a few sellers are trying to pass off as special and location location location

Half a million imo was overpriced

Have to agree w/what New Century Mortgage said on a previous post that these sellers must be overleveraged

And hoping somebody goes for the hype

Reapeat the search for Wayside, Edgewood, Cottage, etc

Pretty sure Pavel hasn't been selling RE long enough to know anything other than bubble pricing. No offense to Pavel but his status quo isn't mine

Anonymous said...

Following the advice from 11:04 above, I looked at the Fendall Avenue/Terrace assessments. And there are multiple sales over $500k since 2004; including

$715k/2004
$959k/2005
$545k/2005
$695k/2006
$551/2006
$570k/2006
$730k/2008

That's excluding 1841 Fendall. Figures from the other streets mentioned by 11:04 are similar. The claim that value has dropped since 2004 is simply (and rather dramatically) false. It's probably false even for prices at 2006 assessments.

I'm sympathetic to claims that homes in this area (and others) are overpriced. But before we bubble-over, it would be good to have a better sense of where this market actually is (and maybe some realtor-readers can help us with the numbers?).

A.M. said...

That Pavel and the other realtors (Jim, michael, Greg, anybody I'm leavving out) show up on this blog is great! Even if Pavel "status quo" is different from mine I'd still use him because he's fired up. Buyer like selller sets the price!

"Protected market" is supposed to mean the area Cville/Albemarle always has a steady stream of buyers and sellers due to largest reliable employer UVA. That anything that happpens in the broader economy isn't felt as much here.

Clearly not true in housing. The market is far slower/more dysfunctional than many other areas especially given its 5/09!

Of course the big big question is just how dysfunctional?!

I think the "protection" hit a cap though. Buyers who rely on income from salaries to purchase homes have hit a limit in mortgage $. Income as in salaries, not income from investments. Plus of course UVA has the freezes.

Pretty sure nobody selling one of the $200K houses is moving into this neighborhood! Or into an 'intermediate' neighborhood.

I haven't had a chance to look at the sales listed above per sreet. But I wouldn't think price for anything offered today would be more than in 2008 or 2006. Even if the house is "better." Don't think that's wise buying! You'd have to wonder if you could turn around and find another buyer tomorrow if for some reason you HAD to sell!

Pavel said...

I just want to point out that I've never made any definitive claims for properties above $250K because the inventory is so high prices will have to come down significantly in order for folks to start buying again confidently - there are exceptions of course. If you are a seller in this market, you want to be the exception. The reason I speak about the detached $200K-$250K price point in C-ville proper is because I'm working with multiple buyers who are not able to find a property that appeals to them in that price range and by the time they get into town to look at something good it's under contract. (the last house I wanted to show them they missed by 1 day and the property had a full price offer on it). I'm not agreeing or disagreeing with the bubble blog whether or not these select properties are still too high - all I'm trying to point out is that there is still demand for well kept up detached/properties under $250K in the city. Will this demand decrease in July? - most likely. But will it increase again in March of 2010? - most likely.

In response to: "Pretty sure Pavel hasn't been selling RE long enough to know anything other than bubble pricing. No offense to Pavel but his status quo isn't mine". I bought my first property in this area in 2002. I have been following the local real estate market daily and obsessively since then; watching the same properties exchange hands multiple times. There is no status quo for me. Every day presents new challenges and new trends emerge. If someone on this blog has a property under $250K for sale in good condition and not too far from the university - I'd like to show it this Friday.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Pavel, thanks for coming on, as usual.

Anonymous #1, since you're a frequent valued commenter, might you please consider a moniker that readers will recognize? As on any blog, readers like to keep track of who is saying what, and on what subject.

Re: appraisers:

http://www.seattlepi.com/local/405528_appraisal25.html?source=mypi

Keeping an Eye on Fendall said...

There's another facet of this neighborhood (long time residents call it "The Gulch.") that you all aren't talking about. I don't live there, but I'm hoping to buy on Edgewood/Winston/Fendall when prices come down to earth. The reason I love it is because it's an enclosed little neighborhood, great for young kids (though few young families starting out can afford to live there!), and it's feels suburban, rather Northeastern, and it's zoned for Venable, a great elementary school, possibly the best one in the city. Other neighborhoods zoned for Venable are Blue Ridge/Hilltop (even pricier than Fendall area), Gordon Ave (too loud, UVa students) and 10th & Page, which is not drawing the same type of buyer as the Fendall neighborhood. Also Oxford, Wellford, etc., similar types of buyers as Fendall, but without the cozy enclosed neighborhood feel.

If you don't like subdivisions or all-sprung-up-overnight residential developments like Village Place, etc., and if you want a "nice" neighborhood, then it's hard to find another safe, enclosed neighborhood for families with young kids, like Fendall.

It's still ridiculously overpriced. But there are some reasons why buyers have been willing to pay what they've been paying these past few years. Irrational, yes, a bit. But the well-off can afford to pay more to get what they want, and folks have been willing to pay through the nose to live in the Fendall area. It looks like that is coming down now, but I bet it will be slow dropping.

That being said, let's talk more about this weird outlyer: I am VERY curious to know what on earth the story is with 1841 Fendall. Who is "BROWN INVESTMENT ADVISORY & TRUST" and why did they buy it for 900K in December? Don't follow that investment firm's investment advice. Gadzooks!

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

This may be the description of the company, and includes a web address:
http://tinyurl.com/c698gc

They may have been making the purchase at the behest of an individual, rather than as an investment "strategy."

There's a new listing on Rugby Road. It's near the light as the road diverges toward Rugby Road Extended and Barracks, but it's at a surprising price point for the neighborhood (low) even considering the large amount of traffic right there: $400K. It's not the gulch, but it's the nabe.

FWIW, the "grapevine" has a couple more houses coming available on some of the streets you've mentioned. And in case you hadn't noticed, Westwood (the side across RH from 250) is basically turning itself over in terms of ownership.

Keeping an Eye on Fendall said...

Thanks, I'll check out Westwood. My Fendall high came down a few notches this week. I talked this week with an acquaintance who lives in the Gulch, and I asked her, "is there much ethnic diversity in that neighborhood?" Her answer should not have surprised me - none. None at all. Where is the black middle class in this town? Seriously, why is it so hard to find a neighborhood that is kid-friendly, safe for kids to bike around in, with traditional style houses (federal, colonial, cape cod, etc.), mixed in with more modern styles if necessary, various sizes of house and lot, some lots up to half an acre, with a mix of working class people and black and white (and latino and asian etc.) professionals?

Where do the black and latino professionals in Cville/Albemarle live? In the county? Johnson Village?

I am white and I really don't want to live in an all-white neighborhood, but I don't want to live in a seedy neighborhood, or an overly noisy one, either. Most of the more racially diverse areas of town are not places where one can find a gorgeous house on 4 tenths or half an acre, in a safe and quiet feeling neighborhood. I'm looking to avoid a subdivision feel to the place I live (so, no Mill Creek, no Redfields, no Forest Lakes...) Where are the sidewalks in this town?