Thursday, April 16, 2009

No End Yet For Downturn in Housing: New Data

Sales in the Charlottesville Area (City, Albemarle, surrounding counties) for the First Quarter were down 33.9% from the same time last year. In the City sales were down 40%; in some of the Counties, down 50+%.

Still, it being Spring and "the season," people are looking. And there are anecdotal/data reports
of properties around the $240K and "under $300K" price points that are selling right now (see Related Reading below, and go to links that indicate the post includes comments; look for Pavel Dovgalyuk and Greg Slater). This makes sense, as a buyer who qualifies for a mortgage of this amount will also be able to qualify for the first-time homebuyers tax credit of $8k, which has a salary limit of $75K for an individual, $150K for a couple.

But nationally, the news remains bleak. Yesterday
, Chase, Wells Fargo, and other large banks announced that they would no longer delay foreclosures, which they'd done so borrowers could take advantage of the Obama Making Home Affordable program.

Bloomberg reports that despite the moratorium,

U.S. foreclosure filings rose to a record in the first quarter as employers cut jobs in the recession and temporary programs to delay action on defaults came to an end.

  • A total of 803,489 properties received a default or auction notice or were seized, 24 percent more than a year earlier
  • A flood of bank-owned properties is hitting the housing market as the U.S. recession deepens
  • Mortgage applications declined last week for the first time in a month [11% decline--BB], a sign that even with borrowing rates below 5 percent may not be enough to spur a housing recovery.
All of this comes at a time when "Continuing jobless claims rose to 6 million for the week ending April 4, an increase of more than 100 percent from the same time last year" and new construction is significantly down, according to the NYT.

What does this mean for this area? Time will how national data might impact sales...will local buyers continue to expect area prices to drop? And how much will foreclosures rise and impact pricing? The VA Housing Development Authority has said it expects foreclosures filing to rise in this area, at all price points, through 2011....

Meanwhile, here are some numbers, which despite sales, increase daily:

Area Housing Inventory - Currently listed on MLS
Cville: 202 single family homes
Albemarle: 695 single family homes
For the area, combined single family, townhouses, condos: 2430+/- (doesn't include Nelson, Staunton, Waynesboro, "The Valley," Buckingham, etc.)

Related Reading:
Foreclosure Filings Climb to Record High in First Quarter 2009 - Bloomberg
Six Banks to Receive up to $9.9B for Mortgage Mods - CalculatedRisk
No End Yet For Downturn in Housing, New Data Suggest - NYT
VA Housing Development Authority on Cville Economic Outlook
The DP on CAAR's Q1 Report (Many comments from buyers and Realtors)
CAAR First Quarter Market Report (Many comments from buyers and Realtors)
Area Sales Significantly Down (Many comments from buyers and Realtors)
Median Home Prices in Cville, Alb, compared to 20 Other Markets
Gen Y Priced Out of Cville Market


Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

The latest asset bubble:

Anonymous said...

The insanity continues . . . bought in November 2003 for $365k, assessed in 2009 for $456k, and the asking price is [drum roll please]: $799k. And dang, don't even bother to clean the place up any . . . seriously, the stables are neater than the house!

Scott Pershing said...

Anonymous - Look at the listing Agent and that explains it all.

I am surprised she didn't list it for $1,799,000.

ITBH said...

Today's City listings:

MLS 464524, $300K, "A rare find", a house that hasn't been updated in 50 years and is 925 sq ft in the city. WIne Street off Park. That's not "rare." That's "Charlottesville Bubble."

MLS 464540 $224K, Grove Ave behind hospital and on the tracks. "Adorable city home...don't let the outside fool you. Bring all offers".
Here's my offer: $50K cash.

MLS 464563 $350K 1611 Bruce in Rugby Hills, IMMACULATE, UPGRADED, MOVE-IN CONDITION, which realtor must know is rare around here, so he uses ALL CAPS.

Here's a tip: there are a bunch of other properties available in a one mile radius on Bruce, Cambridge Cir, Oxford Cir, Amherst, Rose Hill, Oxford Road. Why not price competitively?

This house hasn't sold since 1971.

MLS 464519 1505 Westwood Road (near Bruce!) $359K Pretty sure this was listed last summer/fall for $399K. Not going to go at this price either, IMO.

Anonymous said...

We should start a "rogue's gallery" of listing agents who consistently price houses beyond any reason. Perhaps they can be shamed into setting fair prices (or walking away from sellers who refuse to do so). But where to start?

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Here's where to start:

It will take about five minutes to set up a blog. Seven if you've never done it before. :0)

Anonymous said...

And yet another -- maybe someone had a few too many downtown? Assessed in 2009 for $722k, listed today for $1.4 mil. I'm sorry, Glenmore is a nice neighborhood and Darby is an especially nice street, but this house does not look like a million dollar house, and asking $1.4 is simply beyond belief. I know, I know, the seller has to get X amount out of the house . . . well good luck with that! I'd like to get 2X more for my car than what I paid for it five years ago . . . maybe I should call this seller?

Anonymous said...

New listing. MLS 464469 118 Buckingham Road $449K 5 bedroom brick cape near Barracks Road shopping center w/in noiseshot of 29N. Last sold 1998 for $183K. Very realistic expectation on part of seller. In 2006.

Anonymous said...

Can somebody pls educate me when the 'hot' spring season in Central Virginia ends? Does it match the calendar spring?

C'ville Bubble Blog said...

Some old hands will tell you that if the property hasn't sold by July 1, "it's all over" and you "missed the boat" as a seller.

Others in this particular area will say they've often seen a second wave of sales in the July/Aug months after the first "swell."

"Spring" selling began February 1.

Jim Duncan said...

I've always thought that the "hot" market is tied to the school year ...

There's one market tied to getting in after the end of the school year and another tied to the beginning of the school year.