Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Albemarle Single Family Home Sales - Preliminary

Below are preliminary numbers for Albemarle County. Some numbers can be found on the 'net; others were emailed. The reliable data usually comes from Realtor Jim Duncan at RealCentralVA...OR somebody setting the old Bubbleheads straight in the Comments.

Commenter Cville Realtor recently wondered why we hadn't mentioned NAR's May 1 press release about February's pending existing home sales rising. Pending home sales indicate what closed sales will be about 45-60 days later, in April or May. Nationwide, pendings rose about 2%; in the South, the numbers rose 4.4%.

As you see below, Albemarle's February Pending and Contingent contracts don't seem to equal closed sales for April. Perhaps more will close in May or June.

Single family home sales from January-May 1 have declined -32% from the same time period in 2008.

April (plus March and February) Single Family Homes Sold in Albemarle County

April 32
March 37
February 28

April 17
March 23
February 23

April 67
March 66
February 40

Pricing Perspective

The following numbers came from Realtor Greg Slater, and appear in the comments after a previous post:

In Albemarle all categories (single family, attached, condo) and pending, contingent, sold:

1st QTR 2008
261 Contracts
(33% under $300k)

1st QTR 2009
249 Contracts
(74% under $300k)

A similar phenomenon has been noticed for the Cville single-family home market: but at an even lower price point. "Starter homes" between $200K-$250K (usually closer to the lower figure) were going under contract very quickly in March/April.

Related Reading
Numbers, Cville Realtor Sally Dent's Blog
Numbers, Cville Realtor Blog Charles MacDonald

Even More Mortgage Holders Under Water
Bankers Worry Worst is Yet To Come - WSJ article on loan officers surveying the credit landscape

Recapping the DP on Q1 Market Report
Cville/Albemarle Single Family Home Sales Significantly Down Q1 2009
Median Home Prices in Cville, Alb, Compared to Other Markets
Va Housing Development Authority on Cville Area Economic Outlook
Gen Y Priced Out of Cville MSA


downtownenvy said...

If the jump in homes priced below $300,000 YOY here doesn't tell some of these sellers something then we'll be sitting on all of this inventory for a very long time.

Now it's time for someone to correct me and explain that the only reason all of these houses sold is the tax incentive for first time home buyers. Yes, that has a lot to do with it, but again I am still believe that the reasonably priced homes are going to sell much faster. Incentive or NOT. Price it so a family can afford it, and you will sell it

Jim Duncan said...

I said on Twitter this morning:

"YoY in Central Virginia, there are about 20% fewer Contracts written on properties in the first 1/3 of this year."

The search I do for this number is "contract date" from 1/1/8-5/1/8 versus 2009.

The month of April showed a small decline in "Contract date" properties YoY as well.

This is Contracts accepted and ratified in the MLS - hence the capital C - not Offers - of which I'm personally writing a ton, but not getting so many accepted.

Cville Realtor - I respectfully don't care what the NAR says. Primarily because they report top-level numbers which affect the Charlottesville market in only one way - psychologically. If people believe the market is getting better, then they will be more inclined to by. Unfortunately, people give the NAR far too much credit, especially in light of their dismal track record of late.

More numbers coming first of next week ... I tend to wait about a week after the first of the month as sometimes there is a lag time between "sold" and being "marked as sold" in the MLS.

If I'm wrong, please let me know.

Jim Duncan said...

downtownenvy -

You are absolutely right. The $8k is a reason but not the reason people are buying.

Deciding when and whether to buy is the result of many different factors. An $8k credit may help to push people to have the "whether" conversation, but not necessarily out the door to buy.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Anonymous who is now deleted, thanks for catching the incorrect URL and spicing things up further.

Jim, thanks for numbers. Wondering if you have insight on why offers are getting rejected: Because sellers think they CAN do better or because they HAVE to do better?


If you want OHO, you'll probably find the HOYD sooner than you might believe.

Georgie said...

Any City numbers?

FWIW, the houses that are selling in City at $200-$250 are often not "family" houses. Too small. Or OK too small for us. We're looking for house but have only seen a couple of things below $250 that would be big enough to stay for five+ years (2 adults/child). And of course some of the lower priced houses while they may be fine themselves are on blocks or in neighborhoods that need some help. And of course then there's the elementary school issue.

cville realtor said...

I agree with you that NAR numbers are suspect given the track record, but, this blog posts negative national news so it seems posting that pending sales are up nationally for the 2nd month in a row would be "fair and balanced" :)

michael guthrie said...

I agree with Jim not running April closed sales until as late as the 10th of May. sometimes it takes folks awhile to get the pending status changed to sold. I also think it prudent to understand the local market vs national but understand where cville realtor is coming from because just like bad national news changes folks perception so will good news.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Cville realtor, are you aware of what percentage of those pending sales are due to foreclosures? That's really not "good" news, is it?

And wouldn't you, as a Realtor, expect pending sales to rise due to SEASONALITY? That is, as the months move closer to the summer, sales always rise, even in slow markets. Right? :0)

cville realtor said...

Seasonality yes but I am pretty sure the 2 month pending sale increase was comparing YOY which takes seasonality into account

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

The rise was from January 09 to February 09.

There was a YoY decline from February 08 to February 09:

"The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in February, rose 2.1 percent to 82.1 from a reading of 80.4 in January, but is 1.4 percent below February 2008 when it was 83.3."

--From NAR Press Release, linked in the post.

cville realtor said...

I stand corrected. Yes, this is probably due to seasonality as you stated earlier.