Wednesday, June 10, 2009

1868 Edgewood: Asking Price = 100+% Increase in 8 Years

New Listing
MLS 466382 - $875K
4 beds, 2.5 baths, 2225 sq ft
$393 sq. ft.
ca. 1929
Listing: "sweet cottage"

This street is part of a micro-neighborhood between Rugby Road and Barracks Road/Rte. 29, close to UVA, which has seen 100++% price increases over the past decade, nearing the $1M mark, for houses that are relatively unassuming.

1868 Edgewood asking price = $25K above assessment.
Transfer history:
100+% increase in price since 2001:
Mar. 2004 $625,000
Jan. 2001: $400,000

See 1868 Edgewood Lane listing here.
Nearby properties for sale:
809 Winston
1833 Fendall has now dropped nearly $100k in price.

Related Reading: House Prices Likely To Decline Further.

16 comments:

downtownenvy said...

This house is essentially my grandma's house in terms of style and square footage. Hers sold just last year, and let me just say that even in a VERY nice neighborhood in Massachusetts, we did not see this kind of price. But you know- not Cville.

Pavel said...

Under contract today.

Seriously said...

And were there multiple offers?

same said...

This property has an acre of land on one of the nicest streets in Cville, walking distance to UVA and Venable. It wouldn't surprise me if it went under contract for close to asking/assessment.

I was going to ask for the Bubble's prediction of what it would sell for. Any guesses?

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Same, our standard prediction is "LOL." :0)

same said...

Sold in a day. Whose laughing?!

Anonymous said...

well, Same, I guess you would argue that the buyer is "smart money".

Have a look at

http://www.rmic.com/productsandservices/marketanalysis/mama/MAMA%20Documents/CharlottesvilleVA.pdf

I would think that smart money doesn't fight the trendline.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Same, we're not laughing at the sale; we're laughing at predicting a price.

RMIC is not the only mortgage insurer who has declared the Charlottesville MSA a declining market.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Genworth Financial (based in Richmond) list of declining mortgage markets:

http://mortgageinsurance.genworth.com/pdfs/Marketing/Declining-Distressed%20Markets%20List-20090202.pdf

PMI mortgage insurance is now more expensive due to companies having to cover so any losses. And consequently, Genworth and RMIC, among others, have had their ratings downgraded by Moody's.

PMI losses have helped contribute to the rise of the FHA loan, and the further intrusion of the government in the housing market. FHA loans only go so far in this MSA, however: the limit is $437K.

same said...

The RMIC and Genworth numbers are rather crude measures of the market. Genworth explicitly includes a wide surrounding area.

If you were only following those trendlines, it would be hard to explain the sale of this property (and many others like it). So it's somewhat amusing that a property posted here so prominently sold instantaneously. Not exactly the expected outcome.

Whether it's smart money, we'll know in a few years ...

I Really Think So said...

The 2001 price of $400K was excessive for this neighborhood. This house should be selling now for just over $500K, which is historic 1% increase in value + 2% rate of inflation. These people, if the sale actually closes, just put themselves underwater. Unless they unlike their neighbors will stay for 30 years. Turning Japanese right before our eyes.

Anonymous said...

There have been 10 contracts for detached houses priced $500-700,00 in Charlottesville for all of 2009???

http://realcville.blogspot.com/2009/06/all-contracts-written-may-2009-via-caar.html

same said...

I Really Think So: now there's a real bubbler! Almost sounds like Scott Pershing, except without the data.

I Really Think So said...

Comparison to SP is a compliment, thank you very much.

same said...

You're welcome. Though the criticisms of Scott apply to your view as well. As bad as the data is, it doesn't support your claims -- at least not for the segment of the market in which this house is situated. (I posted the publicly available data for that segment of the market, and Scott never replied. I hope he's ok!)

Anonymous said...

Uh, Same, I think we've all been through this now several times -- some higher-end houses in or close to the city are selling at or near assessment, but there is still a huge overhang of unsold, significantly overpriced inventory that most believe will drive prices lower over time -- so I think you can stop congratulating yourself. Only time will tell . . . so stick around and let's see how this story ends.