Thursday, June 11, 2009

All Contracts Written: Through June 1 2009 Via CAAR MLS

Below are spreadsheets for all contracts in the Charlottesville MLS for May 2009. Realtor Greg Slater has provided contract data for the past few months, and what you see below is the result of his efforts. Greg has provided contract data for the City, and for the Counties of Albemarle, Greene, and Fluvanna. Earlier 2009 Contracts, January-April, may be found here.

"All contracts"
means those that have closed, those that are pending, and those that are contingent. "Contingent" indicates a condition (or conditions) must be met before the sale may be completed, such as buyer selling current house; an issue fixed; obtaining of financing; etc. (As we've noted recently, however, there is a chance some pending and/or contingent sales may not close if buyer did not lock an interest rate).

CONTRACT DATA:

Click on image to enlarge in new window.




We'll let the numbers speak for themselves, but a few more points of interest:

ANALYSIS: While the spreadsheets below are contract numbers, the go-to guy for analysis is typically Realtor Jim Duncan at RealCentralVA, who tells us he'll have a Market Update on Friday, June 12.

CLOSED CONTRACTS: For graphs and reports on closed contracts for May, see Realtor Pam Dent's blog at Active Rain. She reports:

Average sale for detached family home Albemarle, May: $428K, or 93% of list.
Average sale for detached family home Charlottesville, May: $377.6K or 93% of list.

Closed contracts Jan. - May:
Cville detached homes -46.5% YOY
Cville condos -75% YOY
Albemarle detached homes -24% YOY

For closed sales reports, plus pricing graphs via Realtor Pam Dent, go here.

PRICING: For an interesting square footage graph for Charlottesville City pricing for January-June, go to Realtor Keith Davis' blog, Dirt Around Grounds. He notes that during this Spring there's been a drop of nearly 40% in asking prices. He says this about pricing: In general, pricing in the City is down. And, as known, pricing is, at best, erratic, and, at times, somewhat irrational." As might be expected, pricing has
rebounded for the selling season. Davis' main caveat for the future? Unemployment. (To that we might add resetting Option ARMs.)

Related Reading:
"It's All About the Prices" - A Sample of New Listings
Cville MSA Jan-April Contracts
Q1 Market Report
Asking Prices Gain With Seasonal Sales - HousingWire

$15K Tax Cred For All Homebuyers? - Bloomberg

15 comments:

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Option ARM resets: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aQ_ZgC75Zfyw

Paying $950 per month for a $350K mortgage?

Anonymous said...

Looker
Visited 2 open houses last weekend. The list prices were slightly reduced, but still double market price in other areas of Virginia. Can't justify paying this premium for C'ville and condition of resale home. Perhaps after the 'selling season' in September sellers will be more reasonable. The income/tax/mortgage picture for average working folks does not support the average sales price indicated for detached family home in Albemarle or Charlottesville. This data seems out of context; wonder what the VHDA's take would be.

Cal said...

Detached houses: -47% contracts in Cville for prices over $300K? That's disastrous. But just one house w/a contract gives every other seller hope.

Re: seasonal pricing. It does seem June new sellers at the lower end are raising asking prices. For those who have already been on the market a while, a tip: a 3% change in price doesn't mean anything when the house is priced 100% more than what it went for in 05. Or is priced 10% over what was paid in 2006.

Anonymous said...

There have been 10 contracts for detached houses priced $500-700,00 in Charlottesville for all of 2009?Am I reading that right?

UVA $ Freeze Continues said...

"Faculty and staff salaries would remain frozen for the second consecutive year under the proposed budget.... lack of faculty salary increases will erase UVa’s gains to make its faculty compensation more competitive with peer institutions."

Graph w/salaries of UVA teachers:
http://www.web.virginia.edu/iaas/data_catalog/institutional/data_digest/emp_fac_sal.htm

Daily Progress UVA Academic Budget Shrinks for First Time
http://www.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/local/article/uvas_academic_budget_to_shrink_for_first_time/41444/

Anonymous said...

Can somebody share info reg changes in average monthly price/sq f in Albemarle during 2009?
Thanks.

Do I read these numbers correctly that no "increased buying activity" was actually taking place in May 2009 compare to the same period of 2008?

Greg Slater said...

We hope to get Barry Merchant back from VHDA this summer to get his latest reports.

Yes, there have been 10 contracts in the 500-700k range in the city YTD. 4 have closed, 6 are still pending settlement. Compared to 15 in 2008, 15 in 2007, 13 in 2006, and 8 in 2005. (Jan-May)

Looking at May specifically, sales activity is reduced as compared to the same period last year, except in Greene County where it has increased. Sales activity is also up under $300k in Albemarle County as compared to 2008.

I do not have any price per sq analysis to share. I think Jim Duncan's reports usually includes those figures, and if not, the CAAR quarterly report does.

Keith said...

Anonymous,

You asked for Albemarle numbers for 2009. Here you go.

Keith Davis

Keith said...

Oh, and to clarify, I did not say the city asking prices have dipped 40% this year. What I said was that the prices are erratic, and that the lowest point in my findings was three months ago, and that was 38% lower than current. I attribute that blip to a low number of transactions in a month. In fact, if you look at these numbers quarterly (where you have larger numbers of transactions from which to base observations) the shift from Q2-06 where the average sq foot peaked in my study to today is a total change of less than 20%.
Keith

Anonymous said...

Keith, Greg
Thanks for the info.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Keith, thanks for posting the Albemarle info. Re: Cville pricing, we weren't implying that prices had permanently dropped 40%, but that there had been some dips in that region during the off season. This seemed to emphasize your description of pricing (which btw employs admirable punctuation).

Anonymous 10.41, there are currently 28 homes in Cville for $500K-$700K (a few of those are just uunder). The rate of sales in 06,07, and 08 was fairly consistent...maybe Greg can answer whether the level of inventory at this price was consistent in those years, too?

(There were also several $500K houses that were on the market for more than a year which have dropped off and become rentals or have had prices lowered into the upper $300's to mid $400's.)

Greg Slater said...

There is a report that will show inventory levels at any point in time across specific criteria and will go back 4 years.

From 500-700k Cville
May 16 2006 Inventory 32.
May 16 2007 Inventory 30.
May 16 2008 Inventory 27.
May 16 2009 Inventory 29.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Michael Guthrie and Greg Slater were guests of Coy Barefoot's on Charlottesville-Right Now! Friday, June 12, discussing RE market. Podcast:

http://www.cvillepodcast.com/2009/06/12/charlottesville-right-now-michael-guthrie-and-greg-slater-2/

michael guthrie said...

As promised, the property I mentioned a couple of weeks ago settled. MLS # 464341
Listed for $629,900 and went under contract for $590,000 in 33 days. Move up buyers vs someone new to the areas.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Thanks for the update. Could you post the address or subdivision? The MLS # doesn't access this info for the general pop once the property goes under contract.

To continue on the phenomenon of "lack of move-up buyers," we have an upcoming post that will likely interest you. Just a snapshot, but a compelling one.