Tuesday, June 30, 2009

Market Snapshot - Recent Albemarle County Asking Prices - Above Assessment

We followed a hunch and looked into the Asking Prices for some new listings in Albemarle County on a couple different days. Though Assessments have been declining for several years now, so much so that the County is having significant revenue shortfalls and cutting services, Asking Prices remain up. In many cases Asking Prices have "bubble valuation" over previous purchase price, and are also priced above Tax Assessments. These are Asking Prices; in many instances the Selling Price will be much different (or the property will not sell).

Still, what seems to be a pricing pattern is further interesting (to choose a word) since:

1. Tax Assessments are based on recent sales;
2. Sales have been declining for the past several years, including this year; even the Spring buying season has fewer sales this year than last;
3. There's a large unsold inventory of properties in the County, which grows weekly no matter how many sales there are simultaneously;
4. Prices continue declining nationwide;
5. Supply here is far greater than demand;
6. Demand for properties priced $300K and above is small here (as it is elsewhere in the nation).

Call it coincidence that on the days we looked at listings the detached (single family) houses were in the majority of cases priced over--and sometimes thousands and thousands of dollars over--Assessments. Or call it a trend.

Conversely, condos and townhouses are often priced near or below--sometimes well below--assessments. Asking Prices are sometimes below what current owner paid.

Perhaps many Asking Prices remain up so the Seller will get near what they hope for or need? If so, there are many agents who will say that this is a tactic that will not typically generate interest in the property.

New Listings weekend ending Sunday June 21
(Several listings were "proposed"; these are not included here, though they appear on the MLS)

5830 Lexington Lane Earlysville $339K
Assessed $259.2K
Paid $172.5 2000

1326 Pendleton Court - Dunlora - $549K
Assessed $499.9K
Paid $399.9K 2002

2601 English Oaks Circle - Forest Lakes - $520K*
Assessed $426.7K
Paid $550k 2006
*Priced higher than assessment, but less than what current owners paid

MLS 466826 Markwood Road $450K
Assessed $302.5K
Paid 295K 2004

MLS 466814 5335 Rockfish Gap Tpke - $479K
Assessed $453K
Bought 1997 for $45K, land only

MLS 466792 1120 Dryden Lane - cottage in Ednam - $768K*
Assessed $692.5K
Bought 1990 $336K
*(Asking Price higher than 2007's assessment)

MLS 466775 3190 Priddy Court - Ashleigh SD Barvoursville - $565K
Assessed $411K
Paid $278.3 in 2001

MLS 466836 9039 West End Circle - Old Trail - Attached - $190K
Assessed $194.8K
Paid $264.2K 2006 (Jim Duncan Tweeted this)
(Asking less than purchase price)

2424 Barracks Place Hessian Hills Condo $139.9K
Assessed $119.4K
Paid $142k 2006
(Asking less than purchase price)

943 Warwick Court - Stonehenge - Attached $152K
Assessed $151.4K
Paid $180.5 2005
(Asking less than purchase price)

1158 Mill Park Drive condo $229K
Assessed $196.8
Paid $182.5K 2003
(not following any trends)

The following are owned by same investor at Barracks West Condos:

MLS 466862 2659 Barracks Road $129K
Assessed $114.7K
Paid $134.9K 2006
(Asking less than purchase price)

MLS 466847 2656 Barracks Road $119K
Assessed $114.7K
Paid $132.9K 2006
(Asking less than purchase price)

MLS 466863 2656 Barracks Road $129K
Assessed $108.2K
Paid $132.4K 2006
(Asking less than purchase price)

New Listings Friday June 26

Of the new listings, several had no info available; they're not included here. One detached home was priced below assessment; it was owned by the builder. The other new listings were condos/townhouses.

MLS 467082 7134 Bradbury Terrace $699K
Assessed $770.4K
Old Trail Inc.

MLS 467084 872 Flordon Drive $955K
Assessed $780K
Paid $775K 2005

MLS 467047 3270 Waverly drive $599K
Assessed $596.2K
Paid $335.5K 1995

MLS 467075 1044 Susan Drive $599.9k
Assessed $594K
Paid $585K 2004

MLS 467060 3259 Lonesome Mtn Road $525k
Assessed $362.3K
Deed of Gift

MLS 467083 4201 N. Garth Road $447.5K
Assessed $406.8K
Paid 1997 $190K

MLS 467093 2639 Frays Mill Road $375K
Assessed $327.1K
Paid $352K 2006

MLS 467096 1125 Raintree Drive $339K
Assessed $305.7
Paid $265K 2004

MLS 466951 3 N Ednam Village St Attached Townhouse $1.175M
Assessed $1,023,900.00
Paid $475K 1997

Related Reading:
For Sale, Still: Grand Homes - The Washington Post
Housing Hallucination: Turning It Into A Rental When It Doesn't Sell


LVTfan said...

So what prices are the transactions closing at? That's the question.

It is interesting that sellers are so optimistic. But are there price reductions taking place on older listings? How long are they sitting on the market?

Where I live, the transactions are published in the real estate section of the paper every Friday -- good information, though a few weeks old by the time we see it.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

That's the BIG question around here. There's not a public/transparent way to track this. The WaPo has the info for Metro DC and many surrounding counties, but the local daily/weeklies have access to the same public records in this area that anybody does.

To get sale price info for the City: you may look up properties individually, often months after they've sold, at realestate.charlottesville.org

For the County, the data may be obtained by date or subdivisions, and downloaded in Excel. More expedient, but there's still lag time.

Or, if one is a buyer or seller, one may ask a Realtor, who can access the MLS. Some Realtors put up sales data on their websites, but it is in the aggregate, not for individual properties.