Friday, July 10, 2009

CAAR's Mid-Year Market Report 2009

Yesterday, we posted graphs showing declining sales in the City, the County, the MSA, and the Region.

Today, The Daily Progress has a summary of the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtor's Second Quarter 2009 report. The article is entitled "Area's Mid-Year Home Sales Reflect Continued Struggle." And it again answers the question posed by last year's article, from July 11, 2008: "Is This the Bottom?" The answer to that question was, of course, "No."

Michael Guthrie, President of CAAR and CEO of Roy Wheeler Realty, says the market "...will not truly improve until maybe the end of the next year. He doubts that there will be any measurable appreciation in price before the end of 2010 or 2011."

And most likely before that time, there will be more significant price drops. As we discussed yesterday, there's little to prevent further price declines in this area.

Below is a graphic from the DP article, showing home sales for the first six months of each year, 2005-2009. Click on image for larger version in new window.

1 comment:

Greg Slater said...

I haven't gotten a chance to get my analysis of contracts out yet, and now headed off to vacation, but here is a little I do have.

The following is the percentage change in # of contracts YOY thru the first half of 2009 as reported to the CAAR MLS.

Albemarle <-1%
Cville -25%
Fluvanna -20%
Greene +16%
Louisa -14%
Nelson -22%
Orange -46%
Total Area -11%

One note, I excluded the new merged MRIS data now available in Louisa and Orange.

My analysis also indicated about 11% of the contracts in both Albemarle and Cville have shifted under $300k as compared to 2008.

It seems pretty obvious to me the YOY closed transactions percent change should continue to improve as we move forward in 2009.

One last note. VHDA's Barry Merchant presented a report earlier this year that got much attention here. We (CAAR) have invited Mr Merchant back to update his analysis thru first half 2009. He will be here in early August to make his updated presentation.