Monday, July 13, 2009

Graph: Median Home Prices Charlottesville MLS 2001 - 2009

Below is a graph of median prices for all types of sales in the entire Charlottesville MLS from 2001 - 2009. "All" means exactly that, a combination: condos, detached houses, estates, townhouses, in the City and Counties covered by CAAR.

Click on graph for larger image in new window.

The prices (rounded on the graph) come from the Virginia Association of Realtors. The graph is courtesy of SLR, who provided the Q2 graphs in this post. In the comments after the same post, Debaser said:

The drop in prices over the first half of this year is still much less than the steep increase in prices during the bubble years.

Michael Guthrie, CAAR Pres, notes:

If you look at the 1st half market report ( you will see the rise in prices vs the decrease forms almost a perfect bell curve. One might think that prices haven't gone down as fast as they have gone up but in reality, median prices rose significantly from
2005-2007 and have fallen almost at the same rate from 2007 to today.

While this is accurate, looking further back in pricing history gives the broader picture.

Prices rose 50% between the years of 2001 and 2007.

2001: 139,000
2002: 166,900 +16.5%
2003: 186,750 +11.9%
2004: 218,950 +17.2%
2005: 240,000 +9.6%
2006: 271,790 +13.2%
2007: 274,000 +0.8%
2008: 268,159 -2.1%
2009: 247,000 -7.9%

And even while the above graph for the entire area says "bubble"--prices far exceeded inflation, income capability, and historic annual home appreciation-- the graph actually falls significantly short of telling the entire story of what's happened to prices in this area.

A higher measure of bubble valuation is to be found in the prices for single family (detached) homes for individual communities. You know the saying? "All real estate is local." Combining the pricing for the City and five counties necessarily lowers the prices in the more expensive areas. Each place--City of Charlottesville, the County of Albemarle County, and the other Counties that make up either the Charlottesville MSA or the CAAR MLS (the MSA is a Census Bureau designation, the MLS is the trade association designation) needs its own sales graphs to show actual valuation histories--and current declines.

Buyers and sellers will have a more accurate picture of the market with this information.

In his Charlottesville Market Report - First Half 2009, Realtor Jim Duncan at RealCentralVA has inventory level graphs. He's also stated that he has median price graphs forthcoming. Additionally, the bubble blog has some enthusiastic graphmakers :0). So more data will appear in the next few days either here or RealCentralVA or both. BTW...don't miss Jim's educated guess (as opposed to "prediction") for "bottom" of the market in the above-linked post.


stel said...

The area median could indicate to prospective buyer that city of cville or alb county have gotten much more affordable. This just isn't accurate. Small areas w/their own numbers will give clearer pic.

Debaser said...

Bubble Blog,

Thanks for extending the median price history back another year, just how far back do these double digit price increases go?


The 2009 Mid Yr CAAR Market Report shows median price declines of -9.4% in Albemarle and -6.8% in Charlottesville along with the area median price decline of -8.5%

Price per Finished Sq Ft. dropped $17 in Albemarle and $21 in Charlottesville while the area decline was $18.

From the data in the report it looks like Charlottesville and Albemarle areas declined on par with the area as a whole.

Of course, this is for sold homes only and I think the report makes a great point:

"The most telling statistic related to homes currently on the market is that the average price per square foot is $203 compared to $143 for homes that have sold in the first 6 months of 2009"