Tuesday, September 1, 2009

A Snapshot of Sales Numbers

Below are the publicly reported sales numbers available on the the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors website.  Note that the August sales may not be the "final" number.  Note, too, that this number is for the entire Central Virginia area, not just the Cville MLS of the City, Counties of Albemarle, Greene, Fluvanna, and Louisa, Nelson, Augusta, plus Waynesboro, Staunton, etc.

More specific sales figures, kinds of property sales, and locations will be available in the coming days. 

The blog shows these numbers because they are the only publicly available record from the trade association that represents most buyers and sellers in this area.   Still, despite lack of specifics, they  show that sales may be starting their pattern of decline for the Fall and Winter. 
The unknown for September's sales?  The up-to-$8k FTHB tax credit, which expires on November 30.  As sales must close by this date, a property should in most cases be under contract by September 30 (Oct 15, according to WSJ).  Will there be a "feeding frenzy," as has happened elsewhere?  
The other, opposite unknown?  Unemployment.  See the graph below, and today's DP article, Private Sector Growth Ends.  The article chronicles the decline in private sector jobs.  Combined with the wage and hiring freeze already in place at UVA...it's not a pretty pic.

Click for larger image in new window; or go to this link.
 
Below, the CAAR numbers.
August 2009 numbers read for "current month"; July 2009 numbers read as "previous month."   Note that inventory for the two months has stayed roughly the same, as have price and DOM.

While inventory is roughly the same, there are many properties that have been turned into rentals, which will come back for sale at some point.

According to the graphic below, sales thus far reported are down 25% for August from July.

July's 273 sales were up 14% from June's 234.
 
Below: June 2009 sales. 

Below:  May on top, April on bottom.
June's 234 sales were 20% higher than May's 188.
May's sales of 188 were about 31% higher than April's sales of 130.
 

 From April to August the average DOM declined by 30+ days, and the median price rose $35k; but in August, the median started declining again.

As stated above, these are just snapshots, and perhaps more August sales will be recorded and/or added in comments.  And info about specific areas, as well as sales of property types, will be available in the coming days.

Related Reading:
What's the cost per car or house in tax credit?  CR answers.

The VA Housing Development Authority Forecast for Cville Market  
Prices Reduced Again.  And Again.  And.... 
August Vacation Reading 
July 1 Snapshot
June 1 Snapshot
Cville Market Q2 Compared to Rest of Virginia 

1 comment:

bert said...

a $1M New Listing that's Not New where the Realtor could't bother to change description which refers to the month of May. 38 University Cir MLS #469242