Monday, April 26, 2010

The Homebuyer Tax Cred Expires in 4 Days. Need a Place? Thousands to Choose From in the Charlottesville Area.

With the April 30 expiration of the Homebuyer's Tax Credit, the "Spring Selling Season" for the "lower end" of this market is effectively over.  
  • There are currently 265 single family homes listed in the City of Cville.  
  • There are 853 single family homes listed in Albemarle County.   
  • There are currently 1,516 properties of all types* offered in Charlottesville and Albemarle County.  This is years of inventory.
  • The number is 3,566 in Central Virginia.
The current tax cred is available to married couples earning up to $245k.  But it's lower-end housing sales, under $300k, that were receiving a boost, since those buyers could use the credit as down payment or closing costs (3.5% down for an FHA loan of $230k = $8k).  From January to March, 58% of all sales in this area were under $300k, according to RealCentralVA.

But the tax cred hasn't done much to deplete inventory, since there are so few buyers in this area. Plenty of inventory remains in the under $300k price range (and every other range).  In fact, inventory climbs daily, if not hourly. 

It's not looking good. 

Of all the property types for sale, the "American Dream" category of single family homes is growing quickly.

Charlottesville:
  • April 2009: 202 single family homes listed
  • April 25, 2010: 265 single family homes listed
  • 24% YOY increase in inventory
  • 1st Q  single family home sales were down -22% 2010 over 2009
  • 1st Q single family home sales were down -47% 2009 over 2008
Albemarle County:
  • April 2009 666 single family homes listed
  • April 25, 2010: 853 single family homes listed
  • 22% YOY increase in inventory
  • 1st Q 2008: 126 single family home sales
  • 1st Q 2009: 82 single family home sales
  • 1st Q 2010: 105 single family home sales
SEE MORE: City of Charlottesville sales info. Albemarle County sales info.

Check out INVENTORY SURGING  
(all types = *single family, townhouse/attached, condo, proposed)

Inventory April 1-7 here.

Inventory April 8-14:
 

Inventory April 15-21:

Same old story: lack of short term buyers, lack of move-up buyers, Option ARMs adjusting, wage-to-price ratio out of whack, Great Recession, rising area unemployment, etc.

Related Reading:
Here's What's Missing From CAAR's Q1 2010 Report 
9 Reasons Charlottesville Albemarle Home Prices Will Continue Dropping
CalculatedRisk: Existing Home Sales
The Big Picture: Recent New Home Sales Data (don't miss comments)
Business Insider: Sell Now Before It's Too Late

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