Wednesday, May 19, 2010

10 Charts Illustrate the National Housing Crisis and the Second Wave of Problems

Housing hasn't improved since the Bubble's burst, and a set of charts from Dr. Housing Bubble show the second wave of problems amping up.  1 in 4 people who haven't made a mortgage payment in a year haven't been foreclosed on.  Read.

9 comments:

Humpty said...

“Purchase applications plummeted 27 percent last week and have declined almost 20 percent over the past month, despite relatively low interest rates. The data continue to suggest that the tax credit pulled sales into April at the expense of the remainder of the spring buying season. In fact, this drop occurred even as rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages continued to fall, and at 4.83 percent are at their lowest level since November 2009,” said Michael Fratantoni, MBA’s Vice President of Research and Economics. “However, refinance borrowers did react to these lower rates, with refi applications up almost 15 percent, hitting their highest level in nine weeks.”

OUCH!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2010/05/mba-mortgage-purchase-applications_19.html

rfs said...

Boy Humpty is all over the most recent economic news!! I just read that myself on Bloomberg. A 27% drop in purchase apps is HUGE. Here is some news that will be pertinent come 6/1/2010...Looks like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (if they stay afloat...)will REQUIRE all lenders to re-pull credit the day prior to a scheduled closing. Currently this is not the case, and this move could delay/derail a closing. Lenders will be required to verify not only if new credit was extended (like maybe home furnishings?) but also if there were ANY inquiries at all. For Realtors, this will mean that highly coveted "commitment" letter will virtually mean nothing!!

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

RealCentralVA has a post about sales being up at Old Trail.

The post needs more data:

1. Of the 30 props that have gone under contract 1Jan - 1 May, 22 were under $300k. Driven by the tax cred.

2. How many were built during the year being used in comparison, 2009?

3. Were any of these foreclosures or Short Sales?

4. Of the 8 higher priced under contracts, were any short sales or foreclosures?

http://www.realcentralva.com/2010/05/18/old-trail-sales-up-year-over-year-really/#more-6277

Sales in this area spiked for tax cred. There will be some activity through July and then barring cash raining from the sky (anything is possible) GHUA.

Humpty - thanks for that compelling data.

rfs - got a link?!

rfs said...

Duh. I always forget the link...

Here ya go.

https://www.efanniemae.com/sf/lqi/pdf/undiscliabtips.pdf

This is from Fannie Mae to its lenders. Starts 6/1

Jim Duncan said...

Thanks for reading :)

I'm out showing houses, going to a closing ...

I'll pull and post as much data as I can later tonight.

--Jim

Humpty said...

Mortgage delinquencies by state:

http://calculatedriskimages.blogspot.com/2010/05/mba-delinquency-by-state-q1-2010.html

Not a pretty picture. All you C'Ville property bulls wake up and smell the coffee. There's no panacea out there. This is going to take years before it corrects. Look at Japan. They chose the road of denial and prolonged the pain for over a decade.

What we need is total capitulation. All the weak owners have to sell and get out before we see a bottom. This is the law of economics.

Montpellier said...

I think it is more than just a matter of denial or being "bulls" - many of those extend-and-pretend folks are people who have no real choice - they cannot show up to closing with $50k in hand to pay off the underwater portion of the mortgage. In fact, if they had that kind of cash reserves, they'd likely just stick it out and try to 'wait out the market'.

Only more defaults - "ruthless" or not - will clear the market.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Montpelier! Glad to see you here, just as the Dow is going to blow below 10000. Whee.

rfs said...

Another sobering read is here...

http://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-borrowers-will-lose-their-home-to-the-bank-2010-5

Atleast the stock market is up...for today anyway.