Tuesday, June 22, 2010

716 Wolf Trap Road - After Foreclosure, Bank's Price is $97k Less Than Previous Asking Price

Looking for rural County land?  Here's a "deal" and a new "Comp." Foreclosures that have returned to the market are often priced much lower than what a typical  individual seller needs/wants to make for a sale. 

The previous owners weren't able to sell 716 Wolf Trap Road in Albemarle County for $428,900.  The 3 acre place with 4 bed house plus tenant apt  is about 5.5 miles from the Downtown Mall, north on Route 20, and looks like an appealing spread.  But even in this "buyer's market," will the bank be able to unload this "farmette" for $332k?  The price is about $10k less than what the bank (the Government, Federal Home Loan) paid in March, and $10k less than current assessment

The First Quarter of 2010 saw a 72% increase over '09 in foreclosures in this area, and the number is continuing to rise.

Click for larger images in new windows.

Here's a shot of the current listing, which is also available here by inputing MLS #.

Old, pre-foreclosure listing:

More foreclosure listings are available here and here. 

Images copyright CAAR.


Montpellier said...

heh...yeah, I saw this come on the market yesterday, and it was an interesting listing. I think the price is getting close to the range where it will sell. Good school district, nice location, nice size "farmette" - not sure about the house (seems a little...tarted up)?

In any case, it's very clear this is the only way the market will "clear" - banks have to pay off the notes at face value (the auction) and then market at the "move it" price. I think it allows them to better control the price cuts, and the collateralized backing of lots of these notes probably makes this mechanism the only one that works.

Humpty said...

Montpelier, please tell me you were being sarcastic. Oh what a steal!

The house sold in October 1997 for $149,900 (DeedBook/Page 1646/501).

Jeff M said...

FYI, the link to CAAR is misspelled.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

Fixed, thanks. If there's still an error, go to caarDOTcom or mycaarDOTcom.

Montpellier said...

Heh...ok Humpty - point taken...however, 1997 is a long, long time ago. I think it would depend on the condition of the house.

Humpty said...

Montpelier, I agree 1997 seems a long time ago but in historical terms it really isn't.

I'm looking at a historical graph that puts it all in perspective. I know it might seem difficult to believe but all these prices are going to revert to the mean.


Humpty said...

and this is the current graph which shows how much downward pressure is still left......http://buyric.com/news/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/1-US-History-of-Home-Prices.jpg

Trust me I'm not making this up. Anyone who has studied charts will confirm what I am saying. It's not what people want to hear but the truth is on many occasions difficult to swallow. What has delayed the process is the cheap money, but even that is not really working.

Real C'ville - The Bubble Blog said...

See especially the link to "A Blistering Ride Through Hell" - Key Housing Charts


Montpellier said...

No, I'm a confirmed bubble-head too, but I think we've had some wage inflation and population growth since 1997, and 1997 probably overshoots the mean. I think a worst-case scenario takes us (C'ville MSA) to 2000 pricing (and even then you have to adjust nominal prices for inflation).

The Schiller graph is interesting, but I think it's a mistake to look at numbers pre-depression. The mortgage market was fundamentally altered by the creation of the first of the GSEs in the late 30s (to deal with the bang/bust cycles and depression collapse of the private banking system).

Go back to the end of WW-II and then trace forward...I think you get a better picture.

I think the new June decline is more tasty schadenfreude.

John Doe said...

Collapse: Worst new home sales on record


Humpty said...

The graph:


From Calculated Risk: This is something I've been tracking for years ... the first graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through May. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship has been fairly steady back to the '60s. Then along came the housing bubble, and the "distressing gap" (due partially to distressed sales).


Humpty said...

After I sent the "Calculated Risk" graph to my email list yesterday I has a conversation this morning with a colleague in NYC who
sells private REITs (not publicly exchanged) that invest in apartment buildings.

He told me it will take years to work off the excess inventory in single family homes and condos. Banks are sitting on huge inventories of foreclosed properties from fear of a much deeper price collapse if they put it all out there for sale. Fewer people are qualifying for mortgages so there are issues on both the supply and demand side.

He told me that the opportunity in RE is in inexpensive rental apartment buildings. People losing their homes, retiring boomers who want to downsize, as well as the boomerang generation (baby boomers' adult children living at home in huge numbers) need places to live. They're moving to cheap apartments. As for the new home builders - the Lennars, Pultes, etc. - they've got long term problems.

Humpty said...


Priced to sell in NOVA. CVille looking expensive compared to NOVA!!!!

I bet this will sell within weeks.