Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Albemarle County Single Family Home Sales Cliff Dive -46% YOY in July 2010

Update August 12 5pm: NBC29 has picked up this story.  See * below.

This is a telling graph.  July is the first month that reflects sales levels without an infusion of Federal government aid.  July's closed contracts were written in May and June, very busy months in this area--but after the April 30 expiration of the Homebuyer Tax Credit.

It's time for the educated seller to go to Plan B.

The Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit ran from April 2008-April 2010 in various forms; in 2010, the tax credit was available not only to First Time Homebuyers, but also to many current owners.   

Albemarle County Single Family Home Sales:


July 2010 is lower than July 2009 by -46%
July 2010 is lower than June 2010 by -52%

Click for larger image in new window.
Inventory is currently at 15+ months.  There will be some new buyers provided by DIA, but the inventory overhang will remain large for the foreseeable future.  The broader economy is slowing down, and the region's unemployment remains significantly higher than two years ago.  

While sellers and their agents may try to convince anybody who will listen of "value,"  the educated buyer knows what tack to take. 

 The next few months will also have low completed sales.


 Meanwhile, there's talk of having hit bottom (see this and this).  The "bottom" can't be determined without at least a year and a half of hindsight.  This gabble is a way of trying to distract from the real conversation.   The obvious response to these sales numbers would be #^%*$#**;@!!!

The above graph comes from the numbers via Nest Realty Group, which provided these sales charts and the term "Cliff Dive".  Click for larger image in new window.
Revisiting the contracts:  May and June contracts plunged. (June below, copyright RealCentralVA; click for larger image in new window).

*UPDATE: NBC29 picks up this story.  They show David Sloan and quote him: "Traditionally, this is a slower time of year...."  (Other real estate agents will say that this area is tied to the school year, and that March-August are the busy times).  The newser also features CAAR president Greg Slater who mentions that the first six months of 2010 saw 15% higher sales than 2009, and sees this as a "positive."  That's only a "positive" for the real estate agents who actually managed to make some coin during that period.  For sellers, this news is dire.


Related Reading:
CAAR's 2010 Mid-Year Market Report Shows Dramatically Low Sales
What Equals a Lowball Offer in This Area?
Here's What's Missing From CAAR's 1st Q Market Report
Graphs: Declining RE Sales in Central VA
The VA Housing Development Authority Market Conditions and Challenges Report


Daily Progress reporting on local sales:
Mid-Year 2010: Subsidies Boost Sales, Future Looks Bleak
Mid-Year 2009 "Area's Mid-Year Home Sales Reflect Continued Struggle."   
Mid-Year 2008: "Is This the Bottom?"

17 comments:

Anonymous said...

Low mortgage rates mean almost nothing to homebuyers now !!! And the Fed knows it. If you're paying too much for a house - Hello, Charlottesville - it doesn't matter if your interest is low, it's still a bad deal.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/38645526

Anonymous said...

UVA and MJH all have rumors of cuts and reorganizations and downsizing. Not the greatest time to buy.

Name/URL said...

How low are Charlottesville single family home sales for July? Can't find them in the blogosphere.

They were already way down before tax credit ended. What's going on now?

John Doe said...

RealCentralVA has Albemarle and Cville combined:

http://www.realcentralva.com/2010/08/16/closings-down-in-july-in-albemarle-and-charlottesville/

We'll post a graph for C'ville individually, coming soon.

Anonymous said...

Sloan Milby has a $380 sq ft bungalow listing in Charlottesville

905 Rugby Road $495,000

http://mycaar.com/(re5a1q3aztur4c45vy30bk55)/propertyDetails.aspx?mls=480406

Anonymous said...

MLS480406, "Renovation candidate or tear down for new home." Asking price $459K for .30 acre lot and circa 1951 home.

C'ville is upside down. If I read this correctly it puts the land value at $1,650,000 per acre for the 'tear down'. :) Lunatic buyers or money launderers please apply.

Humpty said...

I just put my dollars into another market. I'll revisit C'Ville in another 2-3 years when these greedy sellers capitulate. The arrogance of the sellers is quite amazing and funny. Every other market in the US has tanked double digits and yet C'Ville sellers have managed to increase their asking prices since the highs of 2006/07.

Good luck C'Ville sellers because you will need it.

I will continue to watch this blog and post because this to me is a lesson in market defiance!
LOL

Anonymous said...

@ MLS480406

Milby always has the highest priced listings

Renter With Wads of Cash said...

RealtorsTM! have maintained the bubble pricing in all segments of Albemarle and the City, imho. If they actually had a code of ethics that wasn't created by other RealtorsTM! they'd have a fiduciary duty to disclose the local $ hazards. Why else would anybody hire a RealtorTM! except as a way to get a price and hide behind them as the reason for greed? Searching and marketing is done on the internet.

@Humpty: RE is much closer to being reasonable in places outside of C'ville, even just over Afton Mtn. But I think 2-3 years is optimistic for Albemarle County!

Come On Now said...

Nest Realty's Keith Davis makes a basic math error in counting the years for this listing:

http://mycaar.com/%28pdv4n2454k1jsy5510j1m245%29/propertyDetails.aspx?mls=480414

Does being math challenged help explain why this "cottage" has such a bubbbbbble price at $72k K? It's a former garage and servants quarters, now available newly renovated at 902 Rosser Lane. Owners overpaid $395 k in 2003. Assessed bubbbbbbbble at $635 k.

Anonymous said...

711 Elsom St. $65K
http://www.mycaar.com/%28fqxbr545cbwzlnfqwwochkyv%29/propertyDetails.aspx?mls=480478

Property Auctions: http://www.readthehook.com/stories/2009/10/15/REALESTATE-PropAuctions-0841.aspx

the debtor owes $158k on the property

Cville Property Records say it was purchased for "$0" in 1989 and $42k in 1992 by same man

Can anyone explain this? Did a bank actually give this man a $158k home equity loan on this dump?

Anonymous said...

Imagine what kinds of HELOCs were given, then, for properties actually worth something. This area's owners and the market is in far worse shape than anybody can accurately track, imo. Something of a shambles, really.

Anonymous said...

Hey, it's right around the corner from the "upscale" Cream St. condos. Endless gentrification potential, you know, right next to the railroad tracks, in the shadow of the cell phone and radio antennas?

Name/URL said...

& both in gunshot of West Haven. The infamous housing project built when Charlottesville paved over Vinegar Hill in the 60's. Some of those Cream st condos have never sold. SHOCKER.

Humpty said...

The Five Stages of America’s Housing Bubble
Michael David White

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/the-five-stages-of-americas-housing-bubble-2010-8#ixzz0x9wBcMGv

PS. C'Ville is still on the first graph, "up up and away".

Anonymous said...

http://www.businessinsider.com/15-signs-that-the-us-housing-market-is-headed-for-complete-and-total-collapse-2010-8

Anonymous said...

The mainstream business media is fixated on when the housing market will come back. Enough! I can no longer listen to attractive cheerleaders whining and begging the government/FED to intervene and take care of us. Are we adults or children? C'ville is not a protected turf nor the haven of job creation.

Why does one single industry (FINANCE) in all its permutations (credit, insurance, real estate, banking) deserve generational tithing from taxpayers? By year end it will become clear that this has barely begun. Pension funds are bankrupt and getting scant media coverage. That will drive the next mega bailout as Ben/Congress dig deeper. Real estate has already gotten its $3T pound of flesh and must move over for other needy 'victims'. Let's hope the next go round actually creates work instead of more entitlements and political payoffs.