Wednesday, August 25, 2010

Nationwide Home Sales Drop 26% to 15 Year Low...Charlottesville and Albemarle Home Sales Were Even Worse

Welcome Back, 20th Century.  Hello, Double Dip. Housing led the US economy out of 7 of the last 8 recessions, but this time it might torpedo an already weak "recovery."  Tuesday's national news shows that, absent the Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit ,"existing home sales" in the national housing market
  • Dropped 26% YOY from 2009
  • Single family home sales dove to a 15 year low
  • In the South, the drop was 23%
  • June to July drop 27%
  • 33% were "distressed" sales
See all data at Bloomberg.  Watch video.

As this blog reported earlier in the month for local sales:

The reality of this market, with sales 57% lower than 1999:
  • Multiple listings come on this market every day.  
  • Some DIA relocating buyers will help get rid of some of the massive inventory overhang, but
  • Anecdotally, there's a lack of  UVA and MJH  "first time" "and move-up" buyers.  With a new president at UVA and ongoing wage/hiring freezes, cuts, and reorganizations, plus a relocating hospital that's making many changes, many folks are waiting to buy.
It's not a question of "Confidence."  Local buyers are aware of these factors:

Buyers see and know:
Graphs

57 single family homes sold in July Albemarle; 27 sold in C'ville.

JULY 2010 Sales Single Family Homes Cville and Albemarle 1999-2010 
July 2010 is lower than July 2009 by -46%
July 2010 is lower than June 2010 by -52%
July 2010 is lower than July 1999 by -57%
Click for larger image in new window.
 Below, in a different form.
Click for larger image in new window.

Below:
2008-2010 Single Family Home Sales Albemarle County
Click for larger image in new window.

Below:
JUNE AND JULY Single Family Homes Cville and Albemarle
2010 is 42% lower than 1999
Click for larger image in new window.

Below:
JULY 2010 Cville and Albemarle
Townhouses (Attached Homes)  1999-2010
Click for larger image in new window.


Underwater house via Getty Images. 
Gray/white graphs RealCentralVA.
Colored graphs Cville Bubble Blog.

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CalculatedRisk has a chart of sales declines in other areas of the country from Housing economist Tom Lawler:

*Existing home sales comprise 90% of the nations' sales, vs. 10% new construction.  The term refers to single family homes, townhouses, condos.  The Cville Area statistics available via internet make a distinction between "new" and "existing" home sales only during quarterly and annual reports.

Related Reading:

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