Thursday, September 16, 2010

The DIA Effect? Greene County Gets Bump in August Home Sales

Greene County was the segment of the Charlotesville Area real estate market that saw a rise in closed (completed) sales for single family homes in August: +25%.  Greene also had a rise in signed contracts: +41% (14 homes contracted in July v. 23 in August).

Details: Completed Single Family Home Sales in July 2010 v. August 2010
  *Albemarle County -24% (63 v 48)
  *Louisa County - 24% (21 v 16)
  *Fluvanna  -14% (21 v 16)
  *Charlottesville -10% (22 v 20)
  *Greene County +25% (12 v 16)

Coincidence, or the DIA Effect?  The DIA ribbon-cutting was August 10, and this blog mentioned what many house hunters know: in Greene County buyers will find lower prices and easy commutes to the DIA facility.  With local unemployment rising since 2008 and private hiring on the decline, the DIA transplants, and some resident employees, are more confident in their economic futures, and will find many options to fulfill housing needs.

Overview: August 2010 v. August 2009
*Sales in Albemarle County down -45% over August 2009
*Sales in City of C'ville down -20% over August 2009
*Sales in the Charlottesville MSA down -30% over August 2009 (City, Alb, Greene, Louisa, Nelson, Fluvanna)

While Greene was the leader, sales remain low.  In August, sellers had a 6% success rate, and inventory soared to 18 months.  Absent the Federal Gov't tax credit that was in effect from 2008-April 2010, and absent the 1999-2007 national notion of "housing always goes up," area sales are at 1990's levels.   Even with some DIA pop, this area enters what some refer to as the "new normal" or "correction" phase.  

  • A house in Ruckersville will be featured on the "Today Show" in a segment by RE maven Barbara Corcoran on Friday, 9/17.
  • Data: stats here; and here.  See earlier graphs.
  • Bill McBride On Two Fundamental Problems in the Housing Market.  1 in 4 VA mortgages has negative equity.


greene resident said...

Yeah, and then they'll find out how bad the Greene schools are which is why those prices are lower. Then they'll move.

Anonymous said...

Wonder how long this bump in Greene Co. sales will last once people find out about the schools here. Then they7'll move to Albermarle like we're doing.

Anonymous said...

The folks buying houses in Greene probably don't have kids. With such a divergence in quality of school systems between Greene and Albermarle, not many parents will choose Greene.

rvr said...

What's the explanation for SO MANY new listings in the MLS?

Anonymous said...

Some are NOT new, just relisted and still at outrageous prices.