Friday, September 3, 2010

Home Sellers in Charlottesville Area Had 6% Success Rate in August - Inventory Soars to 18 Months

It's Labor Day weekend, and The Fall is just around the corner.
  • 162 of 2906 properties of all types sold in C'ville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson  in August 2010.
  • 127 of the 162 were  single family homes2047 of the 2906 properties currently available are detached, single family homes.
  • This means homesellers had a 6% rate of success.  Or, to put it the other way, a 94% chance of failure.
  • Sales were down 30% for all types of inventory in the City + 5 Counties from August 2009. 
  • Sales for individual counties have not yet been posted, to compare with July 2010's news, which included a nationwide drop of 27% in sales to a  15 year low, plus a drop of 48% in Albemarle County for single family homes.  Read.
  • Inventory for August 2010 is up 50% from August 2009.
  • Inventory in August 2010 is up 20% from July 2010. 
  • "18 Months of Inventory" means that it would take that long, at this pace, to clear the housing stock.  A "balanced" market has 6 months of inventory.
  • National inventory (existing) is at 12 months supply.
  • Mortgage Rates ave declined for 10 of the past 11 weeks, now at 4.3%.
The data comes from Nest Realty Group.  Broker Jonathan Kauffman comments that the market will continue to "correct" itself, but that the two major factors are unemployment rising locally and rising nationally, plus  huge inventory. 

Actually, the most important element holding back sales in this market: price.  Inventory will clear out when prices reflect  the idea that bubble prices of earlier years do not indicate actual value now.  In this area, Foreclosure resale prices are closest to "fair market value," and Short Sale pricing is getting more realistic as well.  Check out daily "Price Reductions" on Trulia.com.

Read the Nest Realty Group post.

Below: Graph of 2009 and 2010 Single Family Home Sales in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson  
Click for larger image in new window.

Below: Table of 2009 and 2010 Single Family Home Sales in Charlottesville, Albemarle, Fluvanna, Greene, Louisa, Nelson.
Click for larger image in new window.

Below: Changes in Inventory Levels for All Property Types, C'ville + 5 Counties
Click for larger image in new window.

Below: Table of Inventory and Sales 2009 - 2010, All Property Types, C'ville + 5 Counties
Click for larger image in new window.

Colored graph via C'ville Bubble Blog; all others via Nest Realty Group

4 comments:

Anonymous said...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39022112/ns/business-the_new_york_times

Dodaz said...

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/39022112/ns/business-the_new_york_times

Humpty said...

Finally, People Are Calling For A REAL Housing-Market Fix: Letting Prices Fall

http://www.businessinsider.com/finally-people-are-talking-about-a-real-housing-market-fix-letting-prices-fall-2010-9#ixzz0ylrx6pwd

Anonymous said...

Did these sellers get the memo, or is this price a mistake? $375k for 10 acres and 1790 renovated home

http://mycaar.com/(wdagim45icwjml55prxbyp2k)/propertyDetails.aspx?mls=481030