Friday, October 15, 2010

The 2010 Third Quarter Charlottesville Area Real Estate Market Report From the CAAR Isn't About the Third Quarter

...It's about the first nine months of 2010. 

Why is it an important distinction? Because this report is not a tool for buyers or sellers. The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors Third Quarter Market Report does not reflect what is actually happening in "The New Normal" of this housing market, which began in the Third Quarter of 2010. 

And because the report will be picked up by local news media** and reported as if the housing market is "recovering." When taken in aggregate, the first nine months of this year have done "better" than in 2009, the midst of the Great Recession. 

The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors Third Quarter Report fails to mention:

 The Charlottesville Albemarle area real estate market changed drastically in the Third Quarter, as it did everywhere else in the United States, absent the Homebuyer Tax Credit, which had been available for the previous 2 years.  Sales plummeted, and buyers exited the market.  We're back to the 1990's in sales, and prices are dropping faster than ever.
If you're bored, see what's presented in the report below.  But don't base a a pricing decision on this.  In order to sell a house, or buy one in a declining market, without losing your proverbial shirt, you need much more information than this PR report, IOHO.

Related Reading:
CAAR's Mid-Year Market Report 2010:  Sales Below 2002 Levels, Even W/Tax Cred Still In Place
CAAR's First Quarter 2010 Report: Here's What's Missing

**UPDATE Like So:  Newsplex and Daily Progress

Graph copyright RealCentralVA; Market Report Copyright CAAR.



rvr said...


(Thanks for this blog, from someone not in the market to buy or to sell, but just to hold.)

Bleeeed it said...

Q3 will look like the salad days after Q4.

Reality said...

This report has as much truth to it as the idea that Realtors don't set prices.

Anonymous said...


My head just exploded.
Support, group?

Neg60K Lady said...

Anyone see any other great "deals" during the Parade of Inflated Homes?

John Doe said...

@12.21 That price is certainly a grand marketing technique, eh? Surely the listing was emailed across the universe more than any other today ;0)

@neg60klady, there are "deals" for "existing" homes, if not new ones! Georgetown Farm took a $2M haircut on asking. $17M to $15M. Several other properties took 10-25% drops in asking prices this week, at the low as well as the high end of the market. See and select "Price Reduced" from the left hand menu.

Anonymous said...

Gotta love that listing even beyond the price. $810K, ONE picture, incomplete address.

AliG said...

what a dump! I wouldn't buy it for 81K.

Anonymous said...

is there some commercial value to this property that we aren't seeing?

Anonymous said...

Rare earth minerals ;0). Re: commercial value: drive by.

AliG said...

You have got to love the chuztpah -
MLS#: 482339
Address: 910 Williston Ct

Bought 11/18/2009 for 615,000
Now for sale, asking price 695,000
Assessed for 542,700

Insanity in this market still rampant!

Anonymous said...

I'll bet they came up with that price all by themselves. Nothing to do with the Realtor.

Anonymous said...

can't tell if you're sarcastic. i bet the owner did come up with the price. they're making an attempt to get back closing costs, 6% commission, and then 5% room to negotiate without taking a loss. i think realtors want to make quick sales. any commission is > no commission.

Anonymous said...

A shooting in the park behind this house about a month ago. Can the description of the neighborhood still be the same?

MLS 482475

Anonymous said...

it is a tear down. still overpriced. ~11 potential lots.