Hello, 2011: Home Prices Falling Into Double Dip

Will 2010 seem like the salad days compared to 2011?  Sure is starting to seem that way.  Remember all that bs about Green Shoots in the economy?  That's what using the word "recovery" next to "housing" is like this winter.  Not.  Happening.  Here or anywhere else.


Via Patrick.net:
Housing's Double Bottom in 2010 and Slow Trudge in 2011 (SNL)
Nation on edge of double-dip in house prices (money.cnn.com)
U.S. Property Values Decline More Than Forecast in Case-Shiller (bloomberg.com)
Double-Dip In Housing Almost Here, According To Case-Shiller Index (forbes.com)
U.S. Housing "Recovery" Stalls (online.wsj.com)
Housing Double-Dip Ahead: Economist (cnbc.com)
"Dr. Doom," Nouriel Roubini: 'Housing Prices Can Only Move Down' (cnbc.com)
Housing Prices Commence Downward Price Movement: It was a mistake to ever suggest recovery (zerohedge.com)
Foreclosure Inventory Rising for 5th Straight Month, Nearly 2.2 Million Loans are 90+ Days Delinquent But Not Yet in Foreclosure (Mish)

A 20-Something Perspective On Falling Home Prices: Awesome!!!

A lot of today's "kids" are unemployed, underwater, and sinking, but some are still looking forward to  further home price "corrections" so they can get in on the debt action. Mom and Dad's underwater pain is the kids' gain.

Case Shiller Index: If Home Prices Keep Nosediving At This Rate, the Economy Will Follow

Yale economist Robert Shiller, of the eponymous S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index, says the most recent price index (October; there's a 3 month lag) is now falling at an over 10% annualized rate.

From WSJ:

House Values v. Property Tax Assesments

It's about to be that time of year again--when folks are shocked by a trip to the mailbox.

Charlottesville Albemarle Real Estate Update - December, 2010 - The Advantages of Homeownership

It's not an investment, and it's not for everybody.



The video is from xtranormal via Patrick.net.

The last thing we posted in November before disappearing off the face of the earth taking a blog hiatus* was the Va Housing Development Authority forecast for this market, indicating low volume of sales, need for increased affordability, and falling prices through at least 2012.  As if to immediately affirm this, sales in the Charlottesville Albemarle Area continued the downward spiral that began in July: November sales are down -32% YOY .  

And the latest 'headwind':  30 year fixed mortgage rates have suddenly exploded to 5.19%. 

Buyers know that sales are down, the economy still sucks "feels" like Recession, and prices will continue declining.  But everybody needs a place to live, and some want to "own" that place.  Some people will buy if they know they're going to stay put for the next 7-10 years.

At this point, however, the majority of Americans know the housing market is weakening and will continue to be a tough road through 2013.  It's only sellers, and their reps, who want to believe the 'future is unknown.'

There may be some wiggles and surges, especially seasonally, but essentially, the handwriting is on the proverbial wall: this one, and this one.
 
Blog note:  When 2011 begins, this blog will post on Tuesdays and Thursdays.  In the interim, there will be some end-of-year and catch-up posts.

*Thanks very much for reading, checking in, and emailing while the blog was dormant in cyberspace.