Tuesday, January 11, 2011

The CAAR 2010 Year-End Market Report: Home Sales Decline For 5th Straight Year, Second Half Was a Debacle

The final numbers are in and confirm 2010 was the worst year--so far--of the Charlottesville area real estate downturn:  home sales plunged, listing prices were slashed, foreclosures skyrocketed, and short sale listings surged.  To download the report, scroll down.

The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors market report shows how difficult it was for sellers to close a deal.   Buyers disappeared when the Federal Homebuyer Tax credit expired on April 30.

The only "rise" in 2011 sales will be the seasonal increase of purchasers in the Summer.   Inventory won't recede for several more years due to already high levels and low demand, pricing and  lack of qualified buyers. 

Thus the final page of the report has a caution: "If inventory climbs again and the regional economy and loan availability both remain stagnant, there is limited opportunity for growth in our housing sectors."  The expectation of home price declines and a drop in sales is achieving national consensus.

The conclusion: "Price sensitivity is still a key factor in this market," no doubt reference to the Virginia Housing Development Authority Market Conditions report,  which explains how prices are too high historically in comparison with income.   

2010 Year-End CAAR Market Report

Home Sale Numbers in 2010, Compared With Earlier Years 

2707 homes sold in the Charlottesville area in 2010, down -1.5% (-42 sales) over the Great Recession of 2009:
Charlottesville -18.9%
Louisa  -7.3%
Orange  -25.7%
Albemarle  + .5%
Greene  +8.4%
Fluvanna +10.7%
Nelson +34.3%  

Compare with 2009 over 2008
...and compare with the peak of the Housing Bubble through 2009:
Sales Numbers (includes single family, townhouses, condominiums):

Graphs and report via/copyright the Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors. 

The Third Quarter Market Report
The Second Quarter Market Report
The First Quarter Market Report

"The New Normal" - A Multi-Part Series 
With foreclosures increased 225% YOY in this area, the Daily Progress reports on why home prices will continue declining for years.
Nest Realty Group: Double-Digit Depreciation Forecast For Albemarle County Home Prices

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Prices are "stable" only in the minds of Realtors and the few people they can now convince to buy. I know several prospective buyers who've been waiting for a couple years to buy. They can be much more patient than sellers and don't listen to the BS of "we don't know what will happen". Everybody knows what's happening next. Lots of invnetory, more foreclosures, more "Who knew?" Buyers know.

the usual junk from the Daily Regress