Thursday, January 13, 2011

Graph: City of Charlottesville Single Family Home Sales At Decade Low

2010 was the worst year of the area housing downturn thus far, but the City is struggling more than other areas. 

Below is an informative graph for sellers, as those with equity can price aggressively to try to sell.  66% of all buyers in this area in 2010 were "First Timers," up nearly 10% over 2009, when the Homebuyer Tax Cred was also in force (report).  This tells sellers that many buyers are relying on cash they don't have to purchase a home.

In terms of inventory, the single family home numbers remain up in the City (and will jump in the Spring) and it's technically a "buyer's market."  Many buyers, however, aren't attracted by the prices, often finding brand-new, or much larger, homes for (much) less in the surrounding counties. 

Knowing that prices are likely to decline through 2013, buyers must plan to stay put for 7-10 years.  (There's always that question:  What if you have to sell, and there's no greater fool?Sellers with equity are, in most cases, those who bought pre-2004 (many others aren't so fortunate).

Notes on the graph:
  • When the homebuyer tax credit expired on April 30, sales in the second half of 2010 in this area dropped precipitously (read).
  • 2010 single family home sales are -10% lower than in 2001.
  • 2010 single family home sales were -43% lower than in 2004, the peak for this sector (more condos and townhouses were being built/purchased in the middle of the decade, and prices were zooming upward, so single family home sales declined after 2004 in the City).
  • 2010 single family home sales were -13% lower than in 2009 (ie, during Recession and even with tax cred available).
  • 2009 single family home sales were -15% lower than in 2008 (even with tax cred available)).
The sales data comes from this post at RealCentralVA.


downtownenvy said...

I think it would be interesting if sellers in the city were also aware that many buyers have been waiting and will continue to wait. We are on 5 years of waiting. Why? We are renting a great home at a great price in a CITY neighborhood and biding our time. We know two other couples who have been waiting 3 and 4 years respectively.

We look and keep up on the market, but we all know that we want to live in the city, and we are waiting until the home/homes that we want come on the market at a reasonable price. We know it happens because our other friends purchased a house this fall. It was in the neighborhood they wanted and the sellers were willing to play ball on the price because they had equity.

The buyers are out there, but the prices still are not.

Montpellier said...

I know several stranded "flippers" who have tenants - tenants who are getting a far better deal than they would trying to buy at the current prices. More foreclosures will help loosen things up.

Anonymous said...

Case in point: 108 Robertson,MLS 484138 "New listing" today (2nd or 3rd time on market) $299k for 3 bedroom 1 bath 85 year old house.

Owners paid $290k in 2004, peak of the market.

I wish them luck, but feel sadness for them.

Anonymous said...

How in the world was 2004 the peak of the market? Really? Home prices were increasing in 2005, 2006, and yes 2007.

John Doe said...

PEAK OF SALES IN THE CATEGORY, single family homes in City of C'ville. CERTAINLY NOT peak of prices!