Monday, January 24, 2011

Q: How's the Fluvanna County Housing Market Doing? A: Rising Foreclosures, Falling Home Values, Seller Pain

Shaun Kenney is the Supervisor for the Columbia District for Fluvanna County, and he asks this question on his blog.  Fluvanna County is east of Albemarle, and has in the past been a place that people "drive to qualify" while commuting into C'ville or Richmond for employment.  It has lately had record-high inventory.  Fluvanna's sales, as elsewhere, were goosed by the Homebuyer Tax Cred, then dropped when it ended.

Kenney posted a 2010 sales report by a couple of Realtors, the "Strong Team," as property taxes are obviously vital to the County's budget.  He injects the dose of realism necessary to effectively view the fiscal future:
One of the real questions in the statistical forecasting done by Robinson, Farmer & Cox is the condition of the local economy — one which at the moment, is entirely dependent upon the homeowners.  This report from Strong Team Realtors may give the slight indication of hope, but it is based largely on the sale of foreclosures and homes whose...prices have been cut.  In other words, when we see a slight uptick in the median price, that’s not because your $450K home increased in value… it’s because the $450K home is being sold for $205K rather than $200K.
Page 24 of the Strong Team Realtors' report says:
One thing that everyone in this market must accept is that the market we are currently experiencing is likely going to be with us for years, not months. 
2011 will be a significant year in the Charlottesville area for two reasons--the first is that there will be no tax credit to bolster sales; the second is that we will likely experience more foreclosures in 2011.
Bolding is ours 

Read the post, and see the numbers, here.

Single Family Home Sales in Albemarle County Are 30% Lower Than in 2001
Single Family Home Sales in Charlottesville At Decade Low
2010 Month-By-Month Sales in the Charlottesville Albemarle Area: Second Half of Year Brought High Inventory, Low Sales, Seller Pain

1 comment:

Montpellier said...

Perhaps Mr. Kenney - a booster of starve-the-beast and deregulate-everything in his prior incarnations - has now, following his own foreclosure experience, started to acknowledge that gravity is real and not just a liberal conspiracy...what else can explain his acknowledgement that sustainable approaches are good? He clearly isn't completely recovered yet, since his first focus is 'what interstate exchanges do we have that we can "develop"' (schlock up) but the fact that he's talking about backing away from subsidizing Walfart et al using taxpayer dollars (construction of expensive infrastructure) gives me hope he's angled in the right direction.

Oh, and by the way: what is it with these "hard money" "fiscal-responsibility" right-wingers that they keep turning up on the bankruptcy and foreclosure lists? Surely these paragons of conservative (in the original meaning of that word) financial policies would know better than to gamble with other people's money in fancy financial products (I/O-ARMs).