Friday, January 7, 2011

A Month-By-Month Recap of the Charlottesville Albemarle Area Real Estate Downturn in 2010: The Worst Year in This Area...So Far

This post contains links to the Bubble Blog monthly sales, inventory, and analysis posts about residential RE during the previous year.   

Update Jan. 11: The CAAR has released the 2010 Market Report

2010 was the worst post-Housing Bubble year in this area--thus far--with carnage and loss everywhere.   The Charlottesville area market mimicked markets nationwide--except that it often did much worse in terms of sales plunges and it had double or triple the national average of inventory.

The Charlottesville Area Assoc of Realtors, and various brokerages, will release 2010 annual residential sales reports in the next few days.  While everybody will assert optimism for 2011 (optimism, as opposed to Realism, has been King since 2006) there's no sugarcoating what just happened: it was a disaster for most sellers in the second half of the year, and indicative of current market conditions for the Spring Selling Season, which kicks off February 1st.  If you read around on local Realtors' blogs, they've already started warning sellers: lower expectations, slash prices. 

In 2010 the Charlottesville Area real estate market changed dramatically in the Second Half, on expiration of the Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit:
Advice for the buyer? As always, Caveat Emptor.


A RECAP of SALES and INVENTORY POSTS from 2010
(Additional chart and graph links are at the bottom)

December 2010 
City of Charlottesville Single Family Home Sales: Sales plunge but prices jump.  Read.

Albemarle County Single Family Home Sales: The December 2010 Median Sold Price of $321,066 is -$64,534 less than December 2009's $385,600 or -16% lower .
The December 2010 Median Sold Price of $321,066 is -$103,934 less than December 2008's $425,000 or  -25% lower.  Read.

November 2010
Cville MSA (the City plus surrounding Counties): sales down -32% YOY from 2009

Cville City Single Family
Sales down -40% YOY
-$55k YOY decline in median price
16.46 months of inventory

Albemarle County Single Family Homes
Sales down -24% YOY
-$31k YOY decline in median price
14.39 months of inventory

Want more on November? See this post and this 2yr data set and this 4 yr data set.

October 2010
Lowlights: Cville -67% YOY, Albemarle -22%, and inventory at level not seen since 1990.  Read.
The Third Quarter Market Report - Glossing Over July, August, September Nosediving.

September 2010
The New Normal: Low Sales Volume.  Read.
Local jobs vanish.  Read.
Heading into the Fall.

August 2010
Homesellers had a 6% chance of successRead.
Declining sales by County.  Read.

July 2010 
The Second Quarter Market Report - Here's What's Missing
The market goes into freefall after the Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit expires.
County sales cliffdive -47%Read.
Townhouse Sales plunge -67%.  Read.
The local market underperforms the National market by a wide margin.  Read. 

June 2010 
Pending home sales plunge Read.

May 2010
Closed sales for May are -21% lower than 1999Read
The Tax Cred expires, and contracts plunge -50%Read.

The First Half: Jan - June 2010
2010 Sales are -43% lower than in 2006.   Read.

April 2010
Q1 Home Sales '08, '09, '10.  Read.
The First Quarter Market Report - The Spin Lives (But Cheerleading Ends in Tears)

March 2010
Inventory Jumps, Mortgage Rates Jump, Sales Drop.  Read.

Februay 2010
Notes from the Charlottesville Area Housing Downturn.  Read.

January 2010
Come on.  Really?   Read.

MORE DATA


  [above graphic copyright RealCentralVA]

Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors Reports - Here's What Was Left Out 

The Third Quarter Market Report - Glossing Over July, August, September Nosediving
The Second Quarter Market Report - Here's What's Missing
The First Quarter Market Report - The Spin Lives (But
Cheerleading Ends in Tears)

See Also:


"The New Normal" - A Multi-Part Series

Charlottesville Albemarle Area Declining Sales in Graphs 2003-2009

1 in 4 Virginia Mortgage Holders Owes More Than Home is Worth
 
With foreclosures increased 225% YOY
in this area, the Daily Progress reports on why home prices will continue declining for years.

Nest Realty has a Double-Digit Depreciation Forecast For Albemarle County Home Prices 


Images copyright CNN Money. 

Title revised from "There's No Sugarcoating What Just Happened."

1 comment:

Montpellier said...

Great recap of the year; I hadn't been checking often since there was that long posting lull. Glad to see you are back at it!