Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Charlottesville Area Real Estate First Quarter 2011: Median Home Prices Slide Back 6 Years, Fall $70,000

The headline nobody read this past week was "Central Virginia Home Prices Plunge $70,000 from Peak in 2006."   

The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors quarterly market reports typically recap the past several years.   But the new one-page format only compared 2011 to 2010, which resulted in the headline "Central Virginia Home Prices Fall $19,000."  

2011's $220k actually means that this area is back down to the median in 2005 [See charts with 2002-2010 data below.]

For individual City/County, the declines are steeper from the peak:

2011's Median Prices by Locality:

Albemarle  $250k down $94,400 or 28% from 2006 peak
Charlottesville  $225k down $56,250 or 20% from 2008 peak
Fluvanna $210k down $52,650 or 17% from 2007 peak
Greene $235k down $79,900 or 25% from 2007 peak
Louisa $199k down $50,000 or 22% from 2007 (and, tax cred, 2010) peak
Nelson $220k down $119,000 or 34% from 2006 peak
Orange $140k
down $171,525 or 57% from 2007 peak

  • This aggregated "median home price" is found by combining all sales categories (single family homes, condos, and townhouses) then identifying the number halfway between high and low.   
  • These figures indicate what buyers were willing to pay in the first part of 2011.   
  • Though the figures have limited use for buyers/sellers interested in only one category, the aggregated median is the most widely reported dollar figure each quarter. 
Prices have been falling steadily, accelerated since the expiration of the Homebuyer Tax Credit April 30 2010.  As prices fall, more mortgageholders lose equity and either can't sell, or can't refi, and are forced into short sale or foreclosure.

Here's a recap going back to 2002.  According to experts, there's still more "correction" to comeLocally and nationally.

Click image for larger version in new window.

2006-2010 Q1 Median Home Prices

2002-2007 Q1 Median Home Prices


 2011 Compared to 2010, from this year's 1-page report

All images copyright CAAR.  These images may be found in the First Quarter 2007 and 2010 Market Reports at the "Market Reports" link in the upper right of your screen at the CAAR website.


Major Price Declines Have Hit Central Virginia

Albemarle County's Price Drops

2023: The Year Bubble Values Will Return

1 comment:

Montpellier said...

Sooo...any guess as to how much this reflects a change in the mixture of sales versus same-segment drops?

Finally...back to 2005...we just need to get back to 2002, and we can start talking about a "bottom".