Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Going, Going, Down: Recapping May 2011 Home Price News

At this point, only a few NAR members think that housing is going to "recover" or "correct" in 2011.  Or 2012, for that matter.  It's not.  The data comes thick and fast.  While there may be some seasonal movement upward in sales and even, for certain sectors, prices, the trends are downward, and will continue this way--locally and nationally--for the foreseeable futureBelieving in "recovery" as a seller means the property will be priced for a past era, and won't go to contract.  Believing as a buyer means paying too much.

Anybody who says otherwise?  They're trying to sell something.  Consider:

Pending Home Sales Dive in April:  -11.6% from March, -26.5% from 2010.   This does not make a successful Spring Selling Season.

New Home Sales Down 23% Over 2010.

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index--the most widely-watched home price metric: Home prices are back to their 2002 levels.  "This month's report is marked by the confirmation of a double-dip in home prices across much of the nation."  More.

Real Home Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio: Back to 1999 

Mortage originations are down 35% over 2010.

66.5% of Americans own a home, the lowest level since 1998.

More than 28% of US Homeowners are Underwater on Mortgages.

Effective Negative Equity will keep the "organic" homebuyer at bay for a generation.

Home Prices Have Now Fallen More Than During Great Depression. 

S&P, Home of Case-Shiller Index, has a new blog on home prices.

More and more people  believe that renting is the American Dream"--there's plenty of time, and inventory, to buy in the future.

The economy is not growing: it's slowing.

What do the nat'l numbers have to do with a local purchase or sale?   That's for the next post, which will recap recent C'ville area home sales and news.

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