Wednesday, July 13, 2011

CAAR Mid-Year Market Report: 2011 Sales Below Levels of A Decade Ago, In Graphs

The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors has put out its mid-year report indicating sales are down 14.9%  over 2010 (see also here).  The two page report (which in years past was 8-9 pages) doesn't graph aggregate sales (all property types) over the past decade, so this blog prepared the visuals.  Comparing year-over-year sales volume is only part of the story; the longer perspective is needed for the sake of legitimizing pricing and expectations.

Not only have hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of new houses, condos, and townhomes been built in the past decade, but the population has increased.  Yet home sales continue to stuggle.  It's important to note that the "short term" (under 5 years) buyer is all but nonexistent (here and everywhere) and that there are fewer "move up" buyers than in the past due to pricing and negative equity.

Buyers and sellers should keep in mind that for all intents and purposes, "Spring Selling Season" is over.  Additionally, local and nat'l unemployment are ticking up again, which adds to the rising foreclosure problem.  IOHO,  Sales and prices will likely be further dropping in the second part of the year.

For more detailed info on recent Charlottesville Albemarle sales, go here.

Graph note: 2006-2008: Incessant question: "Is this the bottom?" 2009: Great Recession.  2010: Homebuyer Tax Credit boosted sales, then expired on June 30.  Sales and prices plunged afterward.  

For all graphs, click for larger image in new window.


In 2011, buyers get more "bang for their bucks"--more house for less money--tho they are still in danger of "catching a falling knife" as prices further decline.  Foreclosures and short sales make up 20-30% of sales volume, depending upon month.  Many buyers opt for new construction--which is cheaper than buying a "used" house purchased during the bubble, which the underwater mortgageholder hopes to sell for the amount of their debt.


The City market has been struggling, but Walker Square Condos have had massive price cuts...and sales picked up.  Single family home sales and pricing are dropping and may be termed "crashing."

The numbers come from CAAR.  Click on "Market Reports" in the upper right corner of the screen, then check out the reports from 2008, 2009, 2010.

Monday, July 11, 2011

Charlottesville Area Real Estate 2nd Quarter 2011: Good News For Buyers as Home Prices Continue Dropping. Bad News For Sellers As Sales Continue Slowing.

The latest data is available: bad news for sellers.  Sales numbers continue declining and inventory remains shockingly high, the trend for years now. Sellers who bought a few years ago and are now trying to sell often have to bring thousands to the closing table, or get their lender to agree to a short sale.

But it's all good news for buyers, especially those who don't have to simultaneously sell.

Comparing Q2 -  2011 to 2010 - April, May, June 

City of Charlottesville

Single Family: Prices Down -7.4% ($250k from $270k).  Sales Down -20% (85 from 106)
Condos: Prices Down -29.7% ($159.9k from $227.3K) which leads to Sales Up 46% (31 v. 21)
Attached (townhouses): Prices up 10.6% ($212k from 192k) but Sales Down -55.6% (8 v. 18) 

Albemarle County

Single Family: Prices Down -2.0% ($346.7k from $354k) and  Sales Down -8.1 (250 from 272)
Condos: Prices Down -7.7% ($120k from $130k) and Sales Down -34.1% (27 v 41)
Attached (townhouses): Prices up 1.3%($234.5k from $231.4k) and Sales Down -36.8% (8 v. 18)

Going forward, buyers and sellers may expect lower prices, as home buying interest will be further waning with summer's end.   Sellers who can will be cutting prices, which means there may be some attractive listings in the next 4 weeks.

The above figures come from Nest Realty Group's long report (inserted below) on the Charlottesville MSA (C'ville, Albemarle, Greene, Nelson, Louisa, FluCo).   

Related Reading:
Graph of the Housing Crash in City of Charlottesville
Local and National Unemployment on the Rise Again
Nearly 30% of Virginia Mortgage Holders at/near Negative Equity 
Foreclosures Continue to Rise in Charlottesville
High End Properties Are Being RePo'd by Banks: Bundoran, Kluge Estate Vineyard, Albemarle House

Sunday, July 10, 2011

Local and National Unemployment Bump Up, and Obama Admin Announces Additional Foreclosure Aid for the Jobless

Local unemployment is rising again (nb: these numbers were announced before the Gordonsville debacle) and the national rate has bounced back up to 9.2%, though the "real" rate includes "discouraged workers" and is a shocking 16.2%.

The other day, we posted about the $50k interest-free loans that will be available by lottery to qualified unemployed mortgageholders.

Now the Obama admin is adding additional help: loan forbearance.  For unemployed workers whose loans are backed by the Federal Government (Fannie or Freddie) payments may be skipped for up to 12 months without threat of foreclosure.  Read the HUD press release, and see the LA Time article.

Thursday, July 7, 2011

Charlottesville's Housing Crash: Graph of Sales 2000 - 2011

As the mid-year Market Reports are about to be released, let's call a spade a spade.  Sales of single family homes YTD in the City of Charlottesville have crashedEvery month of 2011 shows significant declines not just from Homebuyer Tax Credit-fueled 2010, but also from previous years.  See most recent numbers here. 

Culprits: Pricing that hasn't reverted to "reality," old housing stock (better RE in the County), savvy buyers, underwater sellers who paid too much and can't lower their prices, and the wider economy.

Some will say Charlottesville's declining sales numbers, which are currently below those of the Year 2000, are the "New Normal" Reversion to "non-Bubble" sales.  No.  Certain details contradict this notion:
Sales 1 Jan - 1 Jun 2000-2011

 As may be seen in the chart of full-year sales 2001 -2010, Charlottesville, mid-year, is less than halfway to 2010's total.  2011 will end far below 2010's total, and thus below the year 2000--in fact, sales levels will be back to the 1990's.

Friday, July 1, 2011

Donald Trump: "Maybe someone is stupid enough to buy" Albemarle House. "I wish them luck."

The WSJ is chronicling Donald Trump's efforts to get Bank of America to sell him former billionaire Patricia Kluge's old digs for the $3.6M he offered at the foreclosure auction.  Trump won the business and the majority of the Kluge Estate Winery property at auction in April for $6.2M.

Trump also bought the front yard and driveway and 200 adjacent acres near Albemarle House, which was bought by BofA for $15.3M in February 2011.  Once listed at $100M, BofA relisted Albemarle House for $16M in April 2011.

Apparently, according to The WSJ, Trump has posted signs
on the front lawn of [Albemarle House] that read, "No Trespassing.  This Land is Owned by Trump Virginia Acquisitions LLC.," aimed at warning off possible buyers.  He has also let the lawn go to seed.

"Maybe someone is stupid enough to buy the house," Mr. Trump said.  "I wish them luck."

The broker for the house, Joseph Marchetti III, responded: "We believe the house is a salable asset as it is."
Read all the details here.

July 14/2011: Kluge's "Fuel" Set For Foreclosure Auction
June  2011: Kluge and Moses Finally File For Bankruptcy