Wednesday, July 13, 2011

CAAR Mid-Year Market Report: 2011 Sales Below Levels of A Decade Ago, In Graphs

The Charlottesville Area Association of Realtors has put out its mid-year report indicating sales are down 14.9%  over 2010 (see also here).  The two page report (which in years past was 8-9 pages) doesn't graph aggregate sales (all property types) over the past decade, so this blog prepared the visuals.  Comparing year-over-year sales volume is only part of the story; the longer perspective is needed for the sake of legitimizing pricing and expectations.

Not only have hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of new houses, condos, and townhomes been built in the past decade, but the population has increased.  Yet home sales continue to stuggle.  It's important to note that the "short term" (under 5 years) buyer is all but nonexistent (here and everywhere) and that there are fewer "move up" buyers than in the past due to pricing and negative equity.

Buyers and sellers should keep in mind that for all intents and purposes, "Spring Selling Season" is over.  Additionally, local and nat'l unemployment are ticking up again, which adds to the rising foreclosure problem.  IOHO,  Sales and prices will likely be further dropping in the second part of the year.

For more detailed info on recent Charlottesville Albemarle sales, go here.

Graph note: 2006-2008: Incessant question: "Is this the bottom?" 2009: Great Recession.  2010: Homebuyer Tax Credit boosted sales, then expired on June 30.  Sales and prices plunged afterward.  

For all graphs, click for larger image in new window.


In 2011, buyers get more "bang for their bucks"--more house for less money--tho they are still in danger of "catching a falling knife" as prices further decline.  Foreclosures and short sales make up 20-30% of sales volume, depending upon month.  Many buyers opt for new construction--which is cheaper than buying a "used" house purchased during the bubble, which the underwater mortgageholder hopes to sell for the amount of their debt.


The City market has been struggling, but Walker Square Condos have had massive price cuts...and sales picked up.  Single family home sales and pricing are dropping and may be termed "crashing."

The numbers come from CAAR.  Click on "Market Reports" in the upper right corner of the screen, then check out the reports from 2008, 2009, 2010.

No comments: