Thursday, September 1, 2011

City of Charlottesville: Home Price Declines In the Double Digits From Peak of the Bubble

The following price data is for detached, single-family homes in the City of Charlottesville.   It shows declines by month; this market is particularly seasonal, and follows the school year.

Previously, we've posted the graph showing the decline in sales, back down to levels not seen since the 90's.  (Graphs also included at bottom of post).

The following price data comes from RealCentralVA, in a post which includes much data for the City of C'ville, including that median price for all property types combined declined -29% inJuly 2011 over July 2010.

Single Famly Home median price declines by month:

Left Number is for the year listed.  Right number is 2011. 

Jan  2008 $292k  to $260 = -10%


Feb  2008 $339k to $180 =  -47%


Mar  2010 $334k  to $261k = -22%


Apr  2007 $335k  to $255k = -24%


May  2007 $306k  to $245k = -20%


Jun  2007 $333k to $265k =  -21%


Jul    2010 $310 to $260k =  -16%

With a median decline of 21% for 2011 thus far, there's still plenty more room for prices to come down before this market has "corrected."  And by "corrected" we mean the market is balanced--as many buyers as sellers.  (O--wait--that may not happen for decades....)

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The following months are peak compared to 2010 (will be updated as months in 2011 complete)

Aug 2008 $351k to $303k =  -14%

Sep  2006  $325 to $219k =   -33%


Oct   2007  $350k to $240k = -31%


Nov  2008  $352k to $277 =   -21%


Dec   2007  $375k to $310k =  -18%

Median decline for 2010 from peak: 21%.  Nb:  The last five months of the year are the "slow" period.  So what's going to happen to home prices for those who want to sell now?

Notes:  There was a Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit in place 2008 - June 30 201.  When it ended, home sales tanked. The "low end" of the City market is selling, and is seeing significant price decreases.  The $600k and up sectors of the market are barely selling, and there is also more resistance to price cutting.  There will be more aggressive price cutting over the Winter and into Spring 2012.  The buyers just aren't here.  At the lower levels, it is now possible to buy a brand spankin' new house out in Albemarle County for $250k and up...and the older housing stock in the City can't compete.

The above numbers come from the below chart, copyright RealCentralVA.
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Another way of looking at the same  data, via RealCentralVA:
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SALES: Charlottesville Single Family, Detached Homes Jan-Jun 2000-2011
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Charlottesville Single Family, Detached Home Sales Full Year 2000-2010
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