On Sunday, October 2, the regional daily newspaper, The Daily Progress, published a story that proclaimed the "health" of this area's market, based on Builder Online's opinion/projection that 2012 would see stronger permitting and building.
The actual data for this market contradicts the website's enthusiasm--and The Daily Progress' repeating of the opinion.
BACKGROUND: In May, Builder Online termed the Charlottesville Area* new home construction market as "worsening." In June, the website stated that the market decrease was "slowing."
NOW: the trade organization has produced its bi-annual forecast, and opines that the Charlottesville Area is the "6th healthiest market" in the USofA.
Not when you look at the actual numbers:
The Charlottesville Area's new home sales in 2011 are lower than in 2010:
- 194 2011
- 230 2010
- Decline of -16%
- In Sept 2006, there were 252 new home for sale.
- In Sept 2011, there were 65 new home for sale.
- That's 75% less.
- In 2010, new home sales were 15.3% of total market
- In 2011, new home sales were 9.7% of total market
- That's a Decline of -5.6%
*The Charlottesville Area for these purposes includes the City, Albemarle, Louisa, Greene, Fluvanna, Louisa, and Nelson Counties. It is #206 smallest of 367 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the US.