Tuesday, November 15, 2011

Podcast: When Will the Charlottesville Area Housing Market Enter Recovery?

The Realtors got together to appear on WINA's Real Estate Matters for Saturday, Nov. 12.  With interest rates at the historic low of +/-4%, lower prices, and high inventory, why is this area still in a malaise? Why is there no rebound?  And when will recovery begin?

Keep these thoughts and questions in mind while listenting to the podcast:
  • The recovery after a bubble usually starts 7+ years after.  Since area prices peaked in 2007 or 2008 (v. nat'l peak of 2006) that would put "recovery" beginning in 2014 or 2015.
  • In this instance, what does "recovery" mean?  That prices begin to appreciate again, say at the usual rate of inflation of 1-2% per year?
  • A balanced market--favoring neither buyers nor sellers--is about 2500 units available for Central VAWhat if this market never returns to "balance"? 30+% of the population is transient.  There's no short-term buyers here.
  • With new construction now costing the same as many "existing" homes, and buyers having the HGTV effect (wanting shiny new homes, appliances, color, furniture), how many will choose the "used" houses, whose sellers "need" to sell to pay off the mortgage, without serious price chops?
  • Confidence in the economy, jobs, and the value of a house is discussed as necessary to re-ignite home sales.  
  • What if "confidence" doesn't return?  What if it has just been replaced by an indifference, if not a refusal, to own property, knowing a home is not an investment?
  • The College Bubble will prevent Gen Y from buying a home for years.
Listen to the discussion.

Related:  
3 Realtors and a Bubble Blog:
Part I - Who, What, Why
Part II - Should A Seller Try to Wait Out the Market?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

MLS # 494019
Another bullshit Montvue listing.
"Picture a home in Provence. . ."
A home in Provence right by the PROVENCE BYPASS!!!!!
Any way to flag these?