Friday, December 9, 2011

Core Logic and FHFA: Charlottesville Area Home Prices Continue to Drop


There are a host of factors that will continue to put downward pressure on Charlottesville Area home prices.  Two indices that track the Charlottesville Area real estate market show the data; declines have  accelerated in 2011.

Core Logic's latest monthly report addresses prices in October, where the y/y decline is -5%.  September's y/y decline was  at 5.8%.  These are closed, aggregated sales: the properties went to contract 30-90 days earlier, during "peak" of the buying season.

Comparison: October 2010 sales were awful due to expiration of Homebuyer Tax Credit; but 2011's years prices are even lower.

The FHFA Index is an eye-opener (Federal Housing Finance Agency).  Check out the current declines, as well as the appreciation rates during the bubble era.  Note that the "bubble" started earlier and ended later in this area than nationally.  Unsustainable, and not to be seen again.

The VHDA (agency's graphic, above) expects home prices to continue declining.  Some neighborhoods/areas/developments have had, and will continue to have, more severe declines than others.  The "existing" First-Time Homebuyer property (think: 30-80 year old house) is a category whose price is dropping, often steeply, due to foreclosures, age, lack of updating, competition from new construction.  And, importantly, lack of qualified buyers.  Example: see comments about 2218 Banbury St. at bottom of this Hook property transfer list.

The FHFA House Price Index 2004-2011:

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I guess numbers depend on your perspective. Regarding the FHFA index... Looks like the drop in price from the year before was LESS than the drop in price from Q2 2010-2011, indicating a rise in the index. Use their HPI calculator with the charlottesville MSA, plug in a number and note the rise from Q2 to Q3.