November 2011 in Charlottesville and Albemarle: Single Family Home Prices Slide Ever Lower, And New Townhomes Gain in Popularity

Year-over-year prices continue to drop in the Charlottesville MSA, according to national data providers.  When prices and sales are examined in "micro markets," the declines are steeper. The data tables below are generated by RealCentralVA using CAAR data.

City of Charlottesville: Single Family Home and Townhome Prices Plunge

Prices of sold houses declined dramatically in the City: average sales price dropped for single family homes -50.05% and for attached homes declined -37.97%.  The more often reported aggregated (all type homes) median price dropped -19.41%.  The number of sales declined -4.76%, which indicates lower prices, and the category of lower priced properties, sell.  

Realtors tend to take it as a matter of faith that lower inventory is good for the market.  This blog (and the WSJ) disagrees: lower inventory doesn't always indicate a healthy market.  There's pent-up seller demand, while buyers remain cautious.  At any rate, inventory will pop right back up Feberuary '12 and forward, with Spring Selling Season.  Related: Crash in the City of Charlottesville.  Click on image for larger version.

Albemarle County: Townhouse Sales Rise, Single Family Sales Plunge, Median Price Declines

The County fared better than the City, as it has now for several years. Still, the single family home category took big hits: prices declined -12.26% and year over year sales dropped a whopping -32.76%.  The positive sector of the market was Townhouse (attached) sales at places such as the Pavillions at Pantops, Old Trail in Crozet, and Belvedere on Rio Rd.   Townhouse communities have the "HGTV" effect on buyers: new, nicer places for less $ than existing properties.  The average sold for townhouses rose 15.39% from $227k to $262K.   Click on image for larger version.

Here's why home prices can continue to decline:

• The VHDA forecast for the market shows low sales, continued price declines
• There's a Dwindling Pool of Willing, Qualified Buyers
• Virginia is #7 of States With Negative Equity
• The Bubble-Era Homebuyer's Plague: Effective Negative Equity

From RealCentralVA: 

January - October 2011 Sales, Inventory, Prices 

And another take on the numbers, via Nest Realty Group:
Nest Report Charlottesville: November 2011