Charlottesville Bubble Blog

A Charlottesville/Albemarle Area RE Blog tracking the market's Boom Bubble Bust Bounce, from 2008 to 2013. The second half of 2010 saw a steep downward spiral in sales; 2011 saw sales volume at 13 yr lo with prices dropping each Quarter. 2012 began with even lower prices which resulted in an uptick in Y/Y sales, and mid-2012 saw "Carpe Diem" trumping "Caveat Emptor." 2013: Booming. Are we a "Protected Market" once again? Time will tell. * Check out the microblogging on Twitter: @CvilleBubble *

Friday, March 2, 2012

Local v. National: Charlottesville Area Home Prices Decline Much More Than Cities Tracked By Case-Shiller Index

Good news for buyers.

Average Price Declines - Single Family (Detached) Houses

Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Standard and Poor's national composite, the "leading measure of U.S. Home prices," fell by
  -4.0% Q4 2011 over 2010
-3.8% Q4 2011 over Q3 2011

City of Charlottesville
-29.0% Q4 2011 over 2010
-10.6% Q4 2011 over Q3 2011

Albemarle County
-18.8% Q4 2011 over 2010
+2.5% Q4 2011 over Q3 2010

The Greater Charlottesville Area
-18.0% from 2004 through end of 2011.
   -6.5% 2011 over 2010
   -2.5% 2010 over 2009
-10.5% 2009 over 2008

Sources: CAAR 2011 Year-End Report and Case-Shiller Home Price Index

This week saw the troubling news that the triple dip in national housing prices is here as the "leading measure of U.S. home prices," Standard and Poor's Case-Shiller Home Price Index, reported new post-bubble lows for all three metrics.

As RealCentralVA has pointed out, Case-Shiller doesn't track this market. But as the most widely-reported price index in the nation it has a psychological impact on buyers everywhere, in addition to the ability to move this market, the stock market, government policy, and the mainstream media.

But the good news for local buyers is this: As reported by the CAAR, home prices in the Greater Charlottesville Area (which includes the surrounding counties), and specifically in Charlottesville and Albemarle County are showing bigger declines in average prices than the national index. Of course, the prices are still much higher than the national average, but that's a different story than percentage declines. Prices will remain higher here even when the Bubble has finished correcting.

And the price declines, even while putting many sellers in negative equity, are helping sales. Contracts for Jan/Feb '12 are up over '11 due to sellers getting realistic about pricing and ongoing low (4%) mortgage rates.

Spring Selling Season seems to be looking up, though Jan '12 closed home sales (contracted in Nov/Dec '11) were lower than Jan '11.

CHARTS and DATA

18% Drop From Peak: Greater Charlottesville Average Prices, Detached Single Family Homes
Source: CAAR 2011 Year-End Report. Click on image for larger version.