Charlottesville Bubble Blog

Economist here. A house is both an asset and sup...

2012-05-15T11:44:45.652-04:00

Economist here. A house is *both* an asset and supports a stream of consumption. It's just like owning the asset we call stock. It can support consumption through the flow of dividend payments and, hopefully, generate gains though appreciation in its value.

The stream of consumption a house supports is represented by the rental income on the house regardless whether it's paid

Lately it seems that the sentiment surrounding loc...

2012-04-12T12:16:01.701-04:00

Lately it seems that the sentiment surrounding local real estate changes on a week by week basis. For a bit in March there it was "multiple offers are back!" and "under contract in one week!" and now it's back to something like stagnation. (Or at least that's how it seems.)
One thing is clear, though, there are LOTS of sellers who are still pricing like it's

Oulous, Statistics would answer "no" to ...

2012-03-24T07:58:22.402-04:00

Oulous, Statistics would answer "no" to your question. We have lived here for close to 8 years, and we still rent. The market is creeping a bit closer to where we want it, and we've realized that lowballing and sticking with our price is going to be the key for us. This blog, and Jim Duncan's www.realcentralva.com will be a huge help to you in this market!! Good luck!!

I have been looking at cville property in the last...

2012-03-17T08:35:15.852-04:00

I have been looking at cville property in the last few months. My family might be moving there. I am disturbed to see that home prices are so high. In addition I have noticed that some houses are actually on the market at prices higher than the bubble peak. Are there really that many high paying jobs in the area to justify such high home prices?

If a buyer's agent did not act in the buyer...

2012-03-11T14:11:23.175-04:00

If a buyer's agent did not act in the buyer's interest he or she would and should be sued into oblivion. Caveat emptor is not a license to steal.

I have been in that house (1466 Oxford). Badly in ...

2012-03-07T21:18:56.653-05:00

I have been in that house (1466 Oxford). Badly in need of updating throughout. Literally 150k to 200k overpriced. Bizarre.

whats funny about that one is Cville's own sto...

2012-03-05T06:37:29.147-05:00

whats funny about that one is Cville's own stock photo is better than the listing cover photo. some realtors dont even try.

http://realestate.charlottesville.org/CAMA/IMAGES/VIDEO/P0000046/P0023402.JPG

Meanwhile, some are still pricing at Bubble prices...

2012-02-23T13:39:31.956-05:00

Meanwhile, some are still pricing at Bubble prices.
$150k over assessment, anyone?
http://www.mycaar.com/(0xpk3t3onqvsie55xj4lyc45)/Version15Results.aspx?ID=C5570AEB2C033B98EF2A87FE6DF64EEB&TP=DV&ShowNav=True

Greene had a high percentage change, but it was fr...

2012-02-23T10:19:21.181-05:00

Greene had a high percentage change, but it was from a very low number. 8 sales in Jan 2011 and 17 sales in Jan 2012.

In spite of the monthly employment testimony prese...

2012-02-14T07:51:11.367-05:00

In spite of the monthly employment testimony presentation much-improved job hike, mortgage rates are merely a little higher. The insecurity surrounding the European debt calamity continues to manage the progress in rates, Or thereof lack, and holds control over the data of a constant bounce back in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve’s promise to seize temporary interest rates firm until at

Dude, The highlighting on this blog is out of cont...

2012-02-09T19:54:15.720-05:00

Dude, The highlighting on this blog is out of control. Please chill.

Going to confidently assert the opinion that price...

2012-02-08T11:02:44.250-05:00

Going to confidently assert the opinion that prices here, and pretty much everywhere else, are not bottoming next month.

And here's another opinion:

http://tinyurl.com/6rrnsja

Clicking through to the article you cite, I see th...

2012-02-08T08:23:42.163-05:00

Clicking through to the article you cite, I see that the author actually says that prices not adjusted for inflation--the prices "most people care about"--will bottom this March. Like, next month.

If you are going to quote McBride, why not do so w...

2012-02-07T20:47:01.251-05:00

If you are going to quote McBride, why not do so with full transparency. He calls bottom for Real prices years from now, but Nominal prices this March.

But it will allow the federal government to get mo...

2012-02-06T14:14:49.899-05:00

But it will allow the federal government to get more revenue through the hidden tax in new mortgages and refis: http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-505263_162-57371781/home-buyers-left-holding-bag-for-payroll-tax-cut/

It has taken me a few years to be able to understa...

2012-01-26T12:02:36.004-05:00

It has taken me a few years to be able to understand the kind of argument that is being made by BC; but I have come to see that it is a true description of our current circumstances. How unfortunate for the vast majority of citizens.

I'd be curious to see the breakdown between No...

2012-01-25T16:40:23.231-05:00

I'd be curious to see the breakdown between NoVa and RoVa.

Great recap bubblers, I hope you are off to a grea...

2012-01-07T17:10:32.342-05:00

Great recap bubblers, I hope you are off to a great new year. i don't think the Cville housing market will enjoy one however. I would say there is massive pain ahead for the marginally located housing here. Quality is selling well in the county and location is selling well in the city, but a seller is in a sad state of affairs if their home isn't in one of those categories. For those

Wow. Thanks for sharing the views of these 3 influ...

2011-12-29T19:55:43.653-05:00

Wow. Thanks for sharing the views of these 3 influential realtors. I can spot one who is extremely well-informed (but zerohedge, really?) and dedicated to sharing his perspective. The others come off as ill-informed and/or industry-hyped.

Caveat emptor when it comes to information providers.

Thanks for putting this together.

We were also interested in the Hyland Ridge Develo...

2011-12-18T20:05:33.403-05:00

We were also interested in the Hyland Ridge Development, but noticed they have not done much with the the land over the last year. We were originally told the home sites would be going on sale in Jan of 2011, then that date was pushed back to spring 2011, then fall 2011. Now it is winter and still nothing is being built. Anyone know what the hold up is, or if they are still planning to develop

I guess numbers depend on your perspective. Regar...

2011-12-12T21:03:26.269-05:00

I guess numbers depend on your perspective. Regarding the FHFA index... Looks like the drop in price from the year before was LESS than the drop in price from Q2 2010-2011, indicating a rise in the index. Use their HPI calculator with the charlottesville MSA, plug in a number and note the rise from Q2 to Q3.

Buyer will likely be a 1031 exchange investor. Th...

2011-12-08T14:37:59.778-05:00

Buyer will likely be a 1031 exchange investor. There are plenty of rich people here:

http://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2011/09/13/americas-millionaire-capitals/3/

Didn't post an opinion on price fwiw. Found ...

2011-12-07T11:21:12.496-05:00

Didn't post an *opinion* on price fwiw. Found the listing interesting since it's the title company.

Do you wonder who the potential buyer is, though, when there are rentals in that area? Southern Title held the bldg for 30 yrs. How many businesses can hope to do so nowadays?

Whomever buys will show optimism and confidence.

Price is not that crazy. Current price represents...

2011-12-06T09:47:28.757-05:00

Price is not that crazy. Current price represents a Gross return of 6% per year. If you take out renovation costs and taxes, you probably get to 3-4% or so. not crazy since the downtown mall didn't really exist when the home was bought.

MLS # 494019 Another bullshit Montvue listing. &qu...

2011-11-16T22:35:05.444-05:00

MLS # 494019
Another bullshit Montvue listing.
"Picture a home in Provence. . ."
A home in Provence right by the PROVENCE BYPASS!!!!!
Any way to flag these?